The House of Blue

41
Cats In Elite 8 For Third Consecutive Year
Take On Baylor For Trip To Final Four

Ten days ago, when the first 4 games tipped off the 2012 NCAA Tournament, there were 68 teams prepared to compete at the highest level of this sport in a single elimination tournament. Sixty games later, only eight of them remain standing. The Elite Eight!!!

On Saturday and Sunday, these eight survivors will square off to determine which four of them will return home and which four will travel on to New Orleans. When the tournament began, 33 of the 68 teams came to the big dance by way of one of the six major conferences, and 38 of the teams came out of one of the minor conferences. Only 2 of the minor conference entries remained standing for the Sweet 16, and tonight, the entire Elite 8 are BCS Conference members. Among this year's Sweet 16 competitors, 13 have claimed the big prize at least once in the past [Ohio University, Xavier, and Baylor the exceptions]. Big Boy Basketball begins in the NCAA Tournament in earnest in the Sweet 16, and only the strong survive these NCAA tests of fire to reach the Elite 8.

Coach Calipari's Kentucky teams are there for the third year in his three tries. In the four years prior to Coach Calipari's arrival at UK, the Cats never reached Big Boy Basketball, losing twice in the round of 32, once in the opening round, and once not even making the field. Coach Calipari changes that pattern of irrelevance the day he arrived in Lexington.

The Elite Eight for 2012!

Syracuse will play Ohio State. Louisville will play Florida. North Carolina will play Kansas. Kentucky will play Baylor.

The Elite Eight is not for the faint of heart or the timid. The Elite Eight is not for the short handed. The Elite Eight is not for the inexperienced. North Carolina and Kansas both have won this championship multiple times, as have Louisville, Florida, and Kentucky. Ohio State and Syracuse each claim one championship in from their rich basketball histories. That leaves Baylor, Kentucky's Elite 8 opponent as the lone team out with regard to championships, but in a twist of fate that never seems to elude tradition rich UK basketball, Baylor once reached the championship game once (1948) before losing to Adolph Rupp's and Kentucky's first of seven champions by 16 points.

So now it is big boy basketball. Kentucky has been there before, reaching a Final Four 14 times in 51 tournament appearances. The Cats have reached the final game 10 times, winning the Championship in 7 of those 10 appearances. Two other true “blue bloods” of the NCAA remain in 2012's title chase. North Carolina has reached the final four 18 times in 42 tournament appearances, and UNC has won it all 5 times.

One last point about this year's Elite 8 field. This Kentucky team has played Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville, and Florida (3 times) posting a combined 6-0 record in 2011-2012. If the Cats do advance to the Final Four, it will have a rematch against either Florida or Louisville, and on the other side of the bracket, either North Carolina or Kansas still loom as potential championship game opponents. Just as “payback” played some role in Kentucky's 12 point win over Indiana in the Sweet 16, revenge can be a double-edged sword that could be turned on these Cats in the Final Four and potentially a championship game in 2012.

However, all of this talk of final fours, and revenge factors are completely premature because Baylor stands in the path to all of that, and the Cats must do on Sunday what it has done 35 times in 37 tries this season, take care of business against Baylor. Baylor opened this season by winning its first 17 games, including its first 4 Big 12 games before losing twice to #4 Kansas by 18 and 14 points, twice to #10 Missouri by 15 and 1 points, to #25 Kansas State by 1 point, and to #28 Iowa State by 8 points. Baylor finished the season 25-6, 12-6, and lost in the Championship game of the Big 12 Tournament to Missouri by 15 points. In their NCAA run to the Elite Eight, Baylor has defeated #58 South Dakota State by 8, #74 Colorado by 17, and #50 Xavier by 5.

Baylor's most impressive win of the season occurred in the Big 12 semi-final round when the Bears defeated #4 Kansas by 9 points. It is hard to say that Baylor has sustained an embarrassing loss in 2011-12 because the lowest ranked team to defeat the Bears was at #28 Iowa State. While Baylor may not enjoy the rich basketball tradition and history of Kansas, UNC, Ohio State, Syracuse, or Kentucky, make no mistake that this Baylor team is the real deal despite the 7 losses they have accumulated in their 37 games.

BAYLOR has played 37 games at an average pace of about 68 possessions, averaging 74.8 ppg and allowing 64.9 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.104 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.960 ppp. Contributing to those efficiencies are BAYLOR's turnover and rebounding rates. BAYLOR's turnover rate has been 20.3% while they have forced turnovers at a 20.9% rate. On the Boards, BAYLOR's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 38.4% and 68.1% respectively. BAYLOR's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.697.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first 37 opponents produced 66 to 67 possessions, and a score of 77.8 to 60.4 ppg for efficiencies of 1.161 ppp and 0.909 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. Contributing to those efficiencies are Kentucky's turnover and rebounding rates. UK's turnover rate is 16.7% and UK has forced turnovers at a 17.5% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 38.5% and 69.1% at the offensive and defensive ends. Kentucky's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.681

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 67 possessions for UK and 67 possessions for BAYLOR with the Cats winning their thirty sixth game in thirty eight starts this season by 7 points, 73-66. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.090 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.985 ppp.