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Jeff Drummond
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Jeff Drummond
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TheProfessor said...
Perhaps considering points allowed, you may have a point because over the last 5 games, Vanderbilt has allowed fewer points than the Cats. However, when you consider that in their last 5 games, Vanderbilt has played at an average pace of only 60.6 possessions per game, the data produces a different conclusion about the relative effectiveness of these two defenses.
Vanderbilt has allowed 55.8 ppg over that 5 game stretch. That is a defensive efficiency of 0.921 points per possession.
Kentucky, in contrast, has played their last 5 games at an average pace of 66 possessions per game, and while Kentucky has allowed more points per game, 58,6 ppg, when the pace is factored in, Kentucky's defense has been more efficient than Vandy's at 0.888 points per possession.
I will take UK's defensive efficiency any season, any day, any game, against any set of opponents. Vanderbilt's "great" defense is illusory given their snail's pace of play.
I read criticisms all the time that numbers don't tell the story, blah, blah, blah.... In engineering school, where analysis using numbers and values is paramount, the old adage applied when I was a student, and as a practitioner, garbage in ... garbage out. If you look at the wrong input numbers, or you analyze the right input numbers with the wrong model, you probably will not get to the right conclusion. This is a good example of that principle.
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tommy said...
Prof, please allow me to translate for you...
There ain't no way in hell Vandy is not neary as good as UK defensively. LOL.
Seriously tho, IMO Vandy is not on par with UK defensively. I would list them 4th in the conference (maybe) behind us, Bama, and Miss St.
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TheProfessor said...
Tommy, Vandy's complete body of work puts them down the list for sure, but the point I was responding to was that Vandy has revived itself over the last few games, and I agree that Vandy is playing their best basketball of the season right now. However, to use the points per game allowed as a measure to support an assertion that they are playing the best defense in the conference right now simply does not withstand scrutiny. Scoring and defense against scoring is the most important measurement in this game, but efficiencies take those scoring rates and normalize them for the variable tempo of play. In this case, allowing 55 ppg is not better than allowing 57 ppg.









Calipari responds to Stallings