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I don't think I'm a "sunshine-pumper," but I predict 6-6. I have one question, which I've asked before but gotten no answer: We've won between 5 and 7 games in the regular season 6 years in a row. Last year we won 5 games with no quarterback, the entire OL dinged up and one running back after another going down with injuries. The defense was learning a new system. Why should we expect to be worse this year than last year?
I think the #1 reason everyone keeps pointing to is 1) our schedule, but I think with having games like Mississippi State, Georgia, South Carolina and Vandy at home this year should help us. And 2) the youth on this team. I think we can all agree that the talent level of this team is potentially better than last year's team, but that is all based on potential at this point. We won't really know anything for sure until we take the field again UL in September
Well, Vegas is not always right because upsets occur, but overall, the Vegas lines track quite well with actual final margins, and the upset rates do correlate to the vegas line in a logical and reasonable manner. The wider the pre-game line, the less likely the underdog wins the game, and the closer the line to zero, the odds are approximately 50-50.
If Vegas continues to say UK will be favored to win 3 of 12 games, I will be concerned about the season.
Well it really shouldn't surprise anybody considering Louisville and Vandy now have HOF coaches.
1)More difficult schedule
2)Zero experience at cornerback
3)Trevathan & Guy made lots of plays for the defense last year - who makes all the TFL/INTs/Sacks this year?
4)The entire O line wasnt dinged up the entire season last year - new O linemen this year have little experience, and zero depth behind them if any dings occur in 2012
5)We are only left with hope that the problems at wide receiver last year are fixed this year by 1st year players
Well if there is any time to pump sunshine, it's now people. It's June, and there is no better time for optimism
I'm an 8-4 guy, because why the hell not? Save the gloom and doom for November.
LOU - W (Should have beat them last year)
Kent St - W
WKU - W
FLA - L (Closer than people think)
Carolina - L (This is when the FAR Joker fools will be in full force)
Miss St - W
ARK - L (gonna suck losing to John L)
Georgia - W (Richt gets fired after this Loss)
Miz - L (Guys are tired, why is our bye week so late)
VAN - W (Forget the debacle last year, It's still Vandy)
SAM - W
TEN - W (Starting our own Streak)
There's still a season to be played. I'll Have Another was quite the underdog in the Kentucky Derby too.
Idk about the more difficult schedule. I think here are only two games we most likely won't be competitive in;
Arky and UGA.
ZERO exp at CB? Mosley? Lowery also saw some action as well. Plus, I'm hoping that M. Bennett and Miles Simpson getting more time at Safety then maybe Neloms will go back to CB...at least I hope. While I do agree its a very young and inexperienced unit, I think we have a lot of going talent back there. Caffey seems to be a natural. I love Faulkner's potential as well although I'm not sure where he will play. We had a lot of young guys get some important PT last year which I think/hope will may pay big dividends.
TFL'S and Sacks?...I really like our front seven. Our D line could be special as the season goes on. Williamson is a stud imo as well.
I agree with the Oline however I do think that Maxwell's ability to throw accurately on the move will help them tremendously.
As for the WRs. As with basically every other unit, I love our youth and potential.
There's obviously a common theme here. The youth movement. This is a very VERY young team bit has a TON of potential imo.
It is more difficult because:
1)Trading a god-awful Ole Miss team for Missouri,
2)Trade an incredibly young UL team at home for now a seasoned one at their place
3)WKU finished 2011 as one of the hottest teams in the nation and has lots back
4)Florida, Tennessee, Georgia expect to be better teams in 2011 than they were in 2012
5)LSU for Arkansas is basically a wash
UK FB will always have a tough schedule even in the yrs people call easier.
1) Mizzou plays Bama before us and Florida after us. Easily a trap game. Not to mention, they are a big 12 team playing an SEC schedule this year who means two things; they do not play D, and they have never ever experienced an SEC schedule gauntlet.
2) That UL team imo has already beat us in their minds. Way over confident from drinking their own koolaide. Feels very similar to 07'
3) I'm not even going to try to defend our chances at beating WKU...shame on you. Yes they are a solid team. We still beat them with absolutely ZERO QB play last year. Won't be the case this year.
4) Florida was GAWD AWFUL on O last year. What exactly do you see that males you belive they are going to be much better???? UT??? Really? That's a trainwreck down there. Dooley has completely lost that team. Georgia should be a top 5 team I do admit, but its always the years they have strong expectations hat Richt falls apart. Also another team We played really tough last year with no QB play.
5) Arky we agree on. That game could get out of hand.
There is still 6-8 possible wins on That schedule. We should have 3 (4 if we beat UL) wins going into the final 4 games against Mizzou, Vandy, Samford, and UT.
I also think we have a solid shot at Miss St. and who knows about USCjr
That's a great point on Bama potentially "softening" them up. Sets up really well for the Cats.
Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/JDrumUK
Jeff have you not realized yet that's all I do is drop great points damn it!
TOMMY "POINTS" ____________ insert my last name for those who know it. Lol
Tommy "The Truth" LMWAO
Interesting numbers, Prof. I did a little more checking from Phil Steele's info. In the last 21 seasons, UK has won as a 4.5 to 8 point dog 11 times, as an 8.5 to 12 point dog 8 times, and as a 12.5 to 20 point dog five times (the biggest upset by UK in the last 21 years was 1996, when a 4-7 UK team won one of its four games as a 16 point home dog against UGA).
In total, that's 24 upsets in 21 years. As you noted, under 4 points, the game is essentially a toss up. This would confirm that UK usually wins one game per year on average that it really shouldn't win.
For good news, in the same span, UK has lost six games that they were favored by 4.5 to 8 points, two games in which they were favored from 12.5 to 20 points, and one game in which there was no line, but they would have been favored by a huge number (NE La.- 1994). That's only nine games in 21 years, so UK tends to play relatively well as a favorite.
Still last year, with the early injuries to our oline, losing what was looking like a pretty good freshman receiver before the season, a glut of injuries to our top running backs, and then the horrible play from our QB position the first half of the season, I have to say (if you want to call me a SP), that things have to look up from last year expecially on the offensive side and the special teams( that did NOTHING as far as getting points for us). I am not expecting 9-3 or 10-2 but I do hope for a winning record which I know would exceed most fan's expectations.
But ul doesn't own it either, so its a problem for everyone. Having a strong catholic base here in the state, makes the outside catholic schools look good, expecially when we are not competing better. Plus guys like Strong doesn't even think that its a priority to own the state so its a real problem because I think we need to keep our best at home.
The U of L game is unbelievably critical to the success of our season. I think that there are three games on our schedule that I would qualify as a "guaranteed win". Nothing is guaranteed, I know, but if we don't beat SAM, WKU or Kent State we might as well hang it up. Going into the Florida game at 3-0 instead of 2-1 is a huge differential in confidence for our guys and a huge differential in the anti-Joker crowd's argument. I think that to have the confidence to win the Mississippi State game we have to beat Louisville. Also, being 4-2 after Mississippi State is a huge difference than 2-4, if we happen to lose to U of L and MSU.
I personally think you're pushing it with MSU and Georgia, since both of those games are away games. My thoughts are more along the 4-6 wins, depending on what we do versus the burds.
Both of those games are at UK, I believe.
I'd say getting rid of our "experience" at CB is a good thing because neither of those guys has much talent if you ask me. I didn't think either was a big time player at any point in their career.
Agreed. Experience isn't always better.
Caffey should be better than both. We need Tiller to push for time as well S. Blaylock and a couple others.
No doubt about it. I think Tiller has a good chance to surprise with his ability to help out in special teams returns as well.
That would be idea. What about Sweat on returns?
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