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Will Calipari be the HC who makes it happen? With the way 2013 and 2014 are shaping up, there's a strong possibility that we hang #10 before Cal leaves or retires. My question is... do you think Cal will stay at Kentucky long enough to take us over the top... and hang #12?
I personally don't think Cal is going anywhere for a long time. He'll put in 10+ years here. As far as how many national championships he'll compile in that time I would think 3 is where the over/under should be set. I'll take the over.
This post was edited by tWhit 19 months ago
Good number. If you look at it this way only a handful of teams a year have a real shot. He's winning one at UK at a 33% clip. If he can sustain that or slightly increase it then you're looking at 3-4 championships while at UK. Doesn't mean he will, but the state of CBB suggests he will have a good chance.
Nah, this pace he's on will have him burned out in 2-3 years.... Unless he plans on running for governor.
You know, it's *really* hard to win a national title in NCAA basketball, particularly in the modern era. Just look at the 1991 UNLV squad, one of the best to ever play the game, '85 Georgetown, '83 Houston, '97 Kansas, '97 Kentucky or '75 Indiana squads. All of these teams should have won the title.
Not only do you have to be very, very good, you have to have a lot of Lady Luck on your side. It's tough to win 7 games in a row against high quality competition. I shall be happy with 1 more title from Calipari before he calls it quits.
While I agree that is generally the case I believe the game has changed since the time of those teams cited. Since '92 only 12 teams have won it all. Of those 12 five have one it more than once. Of those 5 UK, UNC, Duke and UConn have each won it three times. That is four schools winning 57% of the last twenty-one titles.
The team with the most talent doesn't always win it all, but we can all agree that most of the time the teams with the most talent make the final four. Yes, you need some luck to win it all, but the numbers suggest the difference in talent between the have's and have-not's increases the probability that the have's win.
Cal will have the most talent just about every year and the only team from a talent perspective that can compete is UNC. Plus he is a master at facilitating the uber talented players to compliment each other.
Now, he may only win one more, but the chance for repeat success of the 2012 team is greater than you might normally think.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Nate87 19 months ago
Good stuff. . .
While I see the potential for great success we are making National Championships sound too easy in this thread.
I'm not making it sound easy, rather offering proof that the most talented "blue blood" programs win it an awful lot. Couple that with the fact Cal stacks up elite players left and right I like the probability of him winning a couple more.
I mean if you add the other team to win multiple championships in that time span then you have 5 teams winning 14 out 21. That's a pretty strong indicator to me that only a few select teams have a real shot winning it each year. As long as Cal is the coach and a recruiting maniac then I feel UK is in that group. That's different than saying its easy.
Exactly. FIVE teams won that many over a 21 year period. We are talking about 1 team over the next 6-8 years. If Cal has a 10 year career at UK and he wins another title he will be the 2nd greatest coach in UK history. Anything more than that we need to name the Arena after him.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Big Sarge 19 months ago
We don't/can't get all the good players, so, I say no. It's really hard to win that many tournament games in 4-5 years.
It all depends on how long Coach Cal coaches. If he coaches for another 12-15 years, he should have a very good shot.
However, never doubt it. The fact is...
1. Elite EIght
2. Final Four with KANTER ruled ineligible
If you think about it, if Coach Cal stayed in Memphis in 2009-2010 season, he would have won a championship, because he would have gotten....
Wall, Cousin, and Henry all on the same team. With some players who already understand Coach Cal's system.
The point i am trying to make here is...He could have won all 3 years. In fact this year, his team is again top 5. Next year his team is most likely the favorite.
His team plays hard defense and very good offense. His team always have extremely athletic and long players, which makes adjusting hard for other team but easier for UK players.
The point is...Once he came to UK...looking at history has 0 meaning. You combined one of the best coach with best university for basketball. Let him write the history.
If that happens he would have to be listed with RUPP, WOODEN, and K, as one of the top elite coaches in history. fyi, I don't classify boobie knight as a person.
Yes, but realistically we're talking about Cal winning like 70-80% of the national titles available in the rest of his (presumed) career to get to 12. If he coaches 8 more years he'd have to win it 50% of the time. That's just not realistic.
I didn't say he would get us to twelve. I said I like the probability of him getting a couple more based on the facts I provided. The point of my post wasn't to say I think we are going to win every year, blah blah blah. Rather it was to drive home the fact that the most talented teams generally win it all. Barring some scandal or a change to the one and done rule we will be one of the top 3 talented teams in the country every year Cal is coaching.
Therefore, I like our chances at winning more championships while Cal is here. Obviously, things like injuries or a bad shooting night can end it quick, but theoretically we will have a pretty good shot just about every season.
Does that make my point more clear!?
The thread is about getting to banner #12. I also like the chances of him winning another title, or even two, at Kentucky, but I don't like the chances of him getting to #12.
Cal will definitely be here to help hang #s 9 & 10. Any more than that I doubt. Cal has stated that he doesn't intend to coach here beyond 10 years, giving him 7 years left. In those 7 years, 13 and 14 are shaping up to be monster classes and this year is a top 5 team. So him winning 2 more titles I would say is a good bet.
Even if he only helps hang #10, he would be among the GOATs having won 3 titles in 8 years.
I like how we are starting to put a run together like the one we had in the late 90s with Elite 8 every year, 3 FFs and 2 titles. That is scary to think about...
I don't know if he will pass UCLA because they very well could win it this year coming if all their players can play this year and they get some good chemistry. Plus the one thing that can really hurt a teams chances are injuries and we are one injury away every year coach Cal has been here from going from a title team to just another tournament team. But one thing is for sure we will have really talented players here as long as coach Cal is our coach. I just wish we were a little deeper if not for Josh Harrellson a couple years ago stepping up his game we would have had a poor year that year so I think injuries could be why he doesn't win more than two more.
I think hes gonna get 2 in the next 4 years...he's gettin one with wiggins wheather it's with the 2013 class or 14 class wiggins will won one...I also think Karl Townes will get one too as I think he will dominate college basketball...I also think cal has 10 more years here I kno he said he won't coach that long but he loves to win and wants that record...college basketball is down also...what happens if he sneaks in a champ this year...and next year he could have the twins randle young lee wiltjer...what if wiggins stays in 2014 and u then have wiggins mudiay Stanley Johnson cliff Alexander...cal is on the verge of doin Something special...when the amount of talent he brings in play as a team this past years team is what happens
I'm in agreement with BlueGhost and eagle man... I think #10 is realistic during Cal's tenure at UK. For him to bring #12 to BBN, it would take a miracle.... and many more years at the helm. I don't think he wants to coach that long... but I love his attitude and confidence about surpassing UCLA. I really hope he does.
He was 1 pt away from one two years ago so I don't doubt that he can possibly sneak one this year. If he does look out because I also think he's winning one with Wiggins regardless if its 2013 or 2014. I honestly think we could win 3 in a row.
Also, you guys should point out
R. Pitinio if he stayed at UK could of easily won more than 1 championship. Probably 2-3 championship.
He also created one of the greatest run of all time with 96,97,98. (nothing says he couldn't repeat this for next 2-3 more years)
Cal is a better recruiter, i don't see how he can't repeat that and not just repeat it but out do it.
We have all played basketball. 1 superstar can take an shitty NBA team to winning 40+ game his rookie season (Lebron, so little exaggerated). I don't see how 2 superstar player can't make a team win national title in college.
The major difference is, Rick didn't have to start over every year while Cal has to bring in the cream of the crop to maintain this level of excellence.
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