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On sat. the Cats will play Baylor in Rupp Arena and it will be the 1st real test at home in this young season. Baylor comes in with a very good team that is athletic and quick. Baylors PG P. Jackson is like lightning in a bottle and will be a tough player to handle and KYs big men will have their opportunities to block shots because Jackson can take the ball to the hoop as well as most any PG in the nation. Baylors freshman big man Austin is playing pretty well and will give our bigs a true test on both ends of the court. From the beginning I have predicted the Cats would win this one in a close game but it will be a true threat to the 55 game winning streak at home during Cals tenure at KY. What do you guys think?
Baylor is currently 4-2, with a Pomeroy rating of #26. Baylor lost on a neutral floor to #61 Colorado by 2 points and at home to #122 College of Charleston by 4 points. They beat #67 Lehigh by 22 points at home. Their game at Rupp will be their first real road game of the season.
Their offensive efficiency has been 1.125 points per possession (#15) as compared to Kentucky's at 1.179 ppp (#3).
Their defensive efficiency has been 0.941 ppp (#62) as compared to Kentucky's at 0.907 ppp (#24).
I see this as a double digit win for Kentucky. Pomeroy puts it at 10 points, 77-67. Pomeroy sees this as the 2nd toughest home game of this season with a win probability of 81%, and the toughest is when Florida comes for the last game, with Kentucky having a 61% win probability as of today. Only two other home games have a probability of winning below 90%, Tennessee at 87% and Missouri at 84%.
If Kentucky's home court win streak ends this season, it is most likely to happen in the last game of the season against Florida.
Thanks for the #s Professor that is really informative. Pomeroy has KY at a win probablity tonight against. the Irish of 56% even though I believe the Cats will lose a squeaker. I think in the end in the game with Baylor will be how well the KY guards will be able to stop P. Jackson from penetrating and either shooting or kicking it out. Of course the same will be true for Baylor trying to stop Goodwin from doing the same thing. I have picked KY to win against Baylor from the beginning but it doesnt stop me from worrying.
This post was edited by sleepydog 17 months ago
If I had to pick a loss of the two games this week it would be Notre Dame. Notre Dame returns a lot of players and it is on the road. I believe Baylor only returns 2 starters.
Well this post is post ND and I picked KY to lose to ND and sadly it came to fruition although I didnt think it would be by 14. The Baylor game I am picking KY by 4 but Iam still worried especially after tonight. The 2 starters you are talking about is the starting backcourt from last year and Jackson the PG is very good and the SG is a great shooter. They have a bigman named Austin thats pretty good though he is a freshman. I think this is their 1st true road game and lets hope they struggle as much as UK did in their 1st true road game.
Believe in Vegas and ignore Pomeroy, thats what I got out of this game tonight.
I agree sleepy, its funny how true freshmen react on the road compared to being at home. Tonight Archie and Alex acted like they were lost on the floor tonight, so out of control.
I said in a thread when we were guessing on how many SEC losses this team would have that this is the year the streak ends. So yeah, it ends this year.
I said the same thing on the thread that I put on about the SEC and REGULAR season wins this KY team would have. I think they will lose at least 4 SEC games this year possibly more unless this group of players become commited to becomming a "TEAM" and play hard nose Cal defense. Im truly concerned about the Baylor game because they come in with an experienced very good back court and a good but young bigman. Cals home streak could end on Sat. although Im picking KY to win by 4.
I went back and looked at Cals pre-conference record for each year and his 1st year he lost 0 games and his 2nd year he lost 2 games and his 3rd year he lost 1 game and so far this year he has lost 2 games. KY faces Baylor on Sat. and depending on the outcome the rest of the non conference games should be push overs till the UL game, so Cal may have twice as many non conference losses this year than any previous year.
23-8 is what I expect, probably 3 non-conf losses (UL loss, Baylor win). The home streak will be in serious jeopardy this season if our play from last night lingers on too long into the season, but in the short term, I expect them to play possessed on Saturday, should be a good effort and win. I look at Mizzou and Florida as less scary considering how far down the road they are, again, assuming we improve as expected. Any other home loss would be a shocker, not to say it cannot happen. But, if I had to take a guess one way or the other, I still think we will get through this season without a home loss. 2 losses so far, 1 more at UL, and road SEC losses at Bama, Miss, Tenn, Fla, and Ga.
Should have won the national championship.
Your record prediction is really close to what I had and mine was 24-7 but you may be right though. I believe that the 2 most critical factors in this years over all outcome(including NCAA) is 1. Finding a consistent PG that can lead this team 2. If Cal can get this bunch to play with energy night in, night out and come together as a "TEAM". iF those 2 things are not worked out then this will be Cals worst team at UK by far. That would be tragic because of the talent and the great athletes that this team has. They have all the physical means to do great things but do they have the attitude needed to those great things.
At the beginning of the year I thought they would win the NC and never changed my opinion. They had a great team that year and was complete in every way but 3 pt shooting and IMO thats what cost them the title. But your right they should have won it anyway.
Some tidbits about tommorows game: Baylor has 4 players averaging in double figures and led by Pierre Jackson with 20 pts and Corey Jefferson with 14 pts and I. Austin at 14 pts and Brady Heslip at 12 pts. Baylor is 0-7 vs UK. Baylor is 4-3 this season. they are averaging 79 pts per game and tommorows game will be Baylors 1st true road game this year.
I did. I picked ND to win, but not by that much.
ND is no pushover at home. Baylor will be a tough win for us but hopefully the loss woke us up from an effort standpoint and we'll come out hungry. We've got a lot of improving to do but I'm not overreacting right now to the loss to ND. They've won a ton of games in a row at home. We just need to pick it up from an effort standpoint. I think the insertion of Harrow back in the lineup sort of screwed us up a little. I expect we'll look better at home against Baylor. We could still lose but I expect us to win.
This post was edited by tWhit 16 months ago
Given how new this type of player turn over is from yr to yr and given how young the cats are this yr can we use any type of system to pick how good UK is over any team. ????
Last yrs UK team would have drilled ND. UK had everything it nneded to win last yr. This yrs teams lack a ton of caryover talent. NO PG no PF right now.
Cal has got some serious coaching to do. I think we can all agree on that for this team to get back to the final four in March and to keep that home streak alive. Its gonna be tough with this team. First and foremost he's gotta get them playing all out all the time. They can't be a team that half asses it.
Don't be so sure. Win? Yeah. Drilled? Doubtful.
Notre Dame beat up on a really good Syracuse team in that building last season too.
Be careful, he might break out the screaming on you.
That Wall team should have lost a few pre conference games. They pulled a few completely out of their bungs.
It's funny seeing these people saying 7-8 losses now when in the earlier thread I saw people calling for a 1-2 loss season. I don't recall anyone predicting more than 5 losses and that was me. 4-5 losses to be exact.
This team even though they have talent they don't seem to have the passion and fire to play to their best abilities. This team has Wiltjer who they have to get the ball to especially when they need a bucket and Goodwin is struggling. Kyle was in the block had his man pinned to his him and they just don't feed him the ball, Noel does the same and they feed him the ball everytime. We are going to have to start understanding who to get the ball too and considering Kyle's skill level even on the post he's gotta get more touches. Another huge factor this team has to do is learn how to talk on defense and how to rotate without giving up dunks and layups. Noel has to stop wanting to be compared with Davis because he's no AD and he probably will never be as good even when it comes to blocking shots. WCS has to stop get turned inside out on the defensive end, he should never have his back to the ball never and he's done this on multiple occasions this year. If he can't come in and be a legit backup for Kyle and Nerlens we are in trouble and Alex just has to play hard all the time. When he plays hard he is dominate and Archie has to play off the ball if he's not going to get others involved. Right now Goodwin wants to still play like he's in high school and he's got to get that out of him, he's very selfish right now and wants to be showtime all the time and its hurt this team. The problem is Coach Cal has no choice but to play him because Harrow hasn't been able to perform at a high level yet. When Ryan is able to be the best Ryan Harrow he can and Cal can sit Goodwin for long stretches and it not hurt us then I'm not sure Goodwin will learn that he has to be a team player. I love Archie and I really think he could be a special player but he has to start playing team ball and right now he's playing Archie ball. I think we beat Baylor by 10 plus mainly because I can't see Cal not letting them compete back to back games and its at Rupp and our fans will push our boy's to the win. Plus this game is the first big home game of the year our boy's should come out with fire and passion if not I will be more worried than I was after the ND game.
Looks like it at least at halftime anyway: Baylor 34, UK 29
The 1st half disappointed me after the 1st 7 or 8 minutes. They kind of ran out of something which was indicated by a 25-12 Baylor run in the last 10 minutes of the 1st half. I dont know what the answer is to get these guys to play hard for 40 minutes.
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