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Costs of Keeping Joker Phillips (Plagarized)

  • All-

    I'm stealing something I saw on the Web. I will shamelessly say I did not do this research, but nonetheless, I'd like to get others thoughts. It points to the financials of attendence going down, which it is.

    Joker makes $1.75 milllion/year. He has three years left after this year. According to the contract, if we fire him without cause, he gets his full salary for the first year after he’s fired ($1.7 million) and half for the next two ($850,000 each for the last two years). That’s $3.4 million he’s owed at worst if we don't negotiate a buyout.

    In 2009 we averaged, 69,594 per home game. In 2010, we averaged 66,070 for 7 games. If you conservatively do that at $35/game, that’s a loss of $123,340 per game or $863,380 total we lost last year, just in ticket revenue.

    This year, home attendance has been 58,022, 68,170, 65,134, 54,098, 57,891, and 56,882. That’s an average of 60,032 per game. Let’s be VERY generous and say the UT game attendance is along those same lines and we end up averaging 60,000 this year. Again, conservatively at $35 per ticket, that’s a loss of $212,450 per game or $1,487,150 this year, just in ticket revenue.

    If we don’t fire Joker, attendance will average 50,000 per game next year at best. That’s a conservative loss of another $2,450,000 next year just from this year if we have 7 games. It's a loss of $4,900,000 from what we'd make if we had some excitement and 7 sell out

    Can UK Wildcats AFFORD to keep Joker Phillips as football coach? Discuss?

    // Apologies that I don't have the person who did the research

  • Hard to argue and for me it all depends on what takes place next weekend. I wanted UK to at least play UGA close which they did. Now for Joker to have any hope he has to beat UT. Whatever happens he cant get beat badly. If that happens he needs to be gone. Simple math says so, but simple math also says if you, the university puts more money into football you get more out, and that hasnt happened so who knows.

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  • Warmother51 said... (original post)

    Hard to argue and for me it all depends on what takes place next weekend. I wanted UK to at least play UGA close which they did. Now for Joker to have any hope he has to beat UT. Whatever happens he cant get beat badly.

    I don't think his job is in jeopardy even if UT spanks us. Barnhart has made it very clear that he's behind Joker 100%, at least for now. If that wasn't the case, he would have kept his mouth shut and not commented either way.

  • I disagree. Every year AD's come out and say they support their coach. Usually right before they put foot to ass. Now I do believe Mitch meant what he said but that is ever revolving. It has to be for an AD.

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  • I don't believe that Barndardt can ignore the financials - someone is going to point to this. The CEO of any "company", which is what Joker is for UKAA, cannot ignore striking declines in financials. I realize that UK isn't a public company but I can't phathom how the university, at least one person, can't find this data out and say this is a trend that can't be ignored.

    If we weren't in a situation where Joker was net new, I could see financials not playing as much importance. However, the last 3 to 4 years included Joker and you can't argue that the product on the field has been detoriating and attendance shows this using simple math like above.

    Just my opinion that sometimes math/accounting speaks volumes...

  • ca4ukinwa said... (original post)

    I think the key there is "fire him without cause". They couldnt say it is "without cause" because he has not delivered a productive product on the field. He was hired for continuity to the program. With back to back losing records, he has not delivered.

  • ca4ukinwa said... (original post)

    All-

    I'm stealing something I saw on the Web. I will shamelessly say I did not do this research, but nonetheless, I'd like to get others thoughts. It points to the financials of attendence going down, which it is.

    Joker makes $1.75 milllion/year. He has three years left after this year. According to the contract, if we fire him without cause, he gets his full salary for the first year after he’s fired ($1.7 million) and half for the next two ($850,000 each for the last two years). That’s $3.4 million he’s owed at worst if we don't negotiate a buyout.

    In 2009 we averaged, 69,594 per home game. In 2010, we averaged 66,070 for 7 games. If you conservatively do that at $35/game, that’s a loss of $123,340 per game or $863,380 total we lost last year, just in ticket revenue.

    This year, home attendance has been 58,022, 68,170, 65,134, 54,098, 57,891, and 56,882. That’s an average of 60,032 per game. Let’s be VERY generous and say the UT game attendance is along those same lines and we end up averaging 60,000 this year. Again, conservatively at $35 per ticket, that’s a loss of $212,450 per game or $1,487,150 this year, just in ticket revenue.

    If we don’t fire Joker, attendance will average 50,000 per game next year at best. That’s a conservative loss of another $2,450,000 next year just from this year if we have 7 games. It's a loss of $4,900,000 from what we'd make if we had some excitement and 7 sell out

    Can UK Wildcats AFFORD to keep Joker Phillips as football coach? Discuss?

    // Apologies that I don't have the person who did the research

    Man, there are so many things this doesn't consider. First of all, you are not considering the new coaches salary, or his assistants for that matter. Then there are Joker's assistants buyouts to consider, do we know how much that cost is? Then there is the fact that we are not going to be able to get a coach who changes the outcome of games next year for a number of circumstances (tough schedule, perceived lack of talent against said schedule etc...). Look at the openings in head coaching positions in college football we will be competing against this year, then tell me you honestly feel good about our chances of landing a top coach who is going to change the outcome of games, thus having any sort of affect on our attendance. Maybe for a few games, then what happens when we start losing conference games? Will people be on here screaming to take on 2 buyouts? Then there is the economy to think about. Think this isn't having some sort of effect on things?

    How do you know attendance will drop 10,000 next year just from keeping Joker? The answer to that is simple, you don't. No one does. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Either way there are a lot of expenses that are failing to be considered. What if we get some experienced and successful offensive coordinator? Then what if we get rid of Brown and apply his stupidly lucrative contract to said offensive coordinator and hire and much cheaper, successful DB coach? Then what if we come out and start dismantling teams next year right off the bat with these changes and Joker staying on as head coach? Do you think everyone who "promised" to never come watch a Joker lead UK team play again will stay true to their word.... I don't.

    In short, just to many unknown variables for those "statistics" to have any validity whatsoever (IMO, of course).

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MossCat15 3 years ago

  • nm

    This post was edited by PAXCAT 3 years ago

  • I don't buy the 50K thing for next year... at least starting out. Fans are always renewed with optimism as another season rolls around, even in the face of evidence that suggests its unfounded (Chicago Cubs, cough... cough)..

    The stadium will be full, again, until fans are shown reason not to show.

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  • Jeff Drummond said... (original post)

    I don't buy the 50K thing for next year... at least starting out. Fans are always renewed with optimism as another season rolls around, even in the face of evidence that suggests its unfounded (Chicago Cubs, cough... cough)..

    The stadium will be full, again, until fans are shown reason not to show.

    I don't know about 50k, but I believe there is ample reason to believe the economy may cause a reduction in ticket sales despite any renewed optimism.

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  • Jeff Drummond said... (original post)

    I don't buy the 50K thing for next year... at least starting out. Fans are always renewed with optimism as another season rolls around, even in the face of evidence that suggests its unfounded (Chicago Cubs, cough... cough)..

    The stadium will be full, again, until fans are shown reason not to show.

    I dont know Jeff, I know I wont be back until they prove they are going to put a product on the field that is worth my money. I have to buy 5 tickets for my family, We then have to drive 2 hours from Ashland. Pay to park, eat before the game, buy snacks at the game. It adds up to quite a bit of money. Plus you throw in the fact that the Cats open at UL next year, if they lose that one then many fans will not show for the opener. I have been a die hard fan for years. I was at the least attended game before Commonwealth expansion. I also attended the Indiana 3 to 0 game. I used to have season tickets until my job caused me to have to give them up. A lot of the disgruntled fans are like me and thought the program had moved beyond this kind of season. The athletics dept has depended on fans like me showing up even during some terrible football, I am afraid those days are over.

  • The reason and only reason to get rid of any coach should be that the programs needs a new direction. The problem with this is we have a ***ONCE AGAIN THE NAME CALLING AND DISRESPECT IS NOT NECESSARY" running the AD's office who can't see anything but the $ and has "Zero" vision.

    Everyone that I consider a half way football mind says the same thing. Next years team will be lucky to win 4 games. So what is the solution? Some think that hiring a OC will fix the problem. With the players we have on the team now and the players that if they stick are coming to UK are not talented enough to be the "playmakers" needed to play against SEC teams much less win running the "system" in place at UK. OC can't make kids faster, stronger, or smarter. Everyone says their is nothing wrong with Jokers system when he has the players. That is true for anyteam but the problem is UK can't recruit those kind of players on a regular basis from Kentucky. And that is were recruiting should start. UK should never lose a kid to Louisville because UK is a SEC school. Louisville is a ?

    Think about this. What would Joker's record be if Cobb had not gone to UK? UK can't keep looking for the diamond in the rough to save them.

    This post was edited by Warmother51 3 years ago

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  • mrhotdice said... (original post)

    The reason and only reason to get rid of any coach should be that the programs needs a new direction. The problem with this is we have a dunce running the AD's office who can't see anything but the $ and has "Zero" vision.

    Everyone that I consider a half way football mind says the same thing. Next years team will be lucky to win 4 games. So what is the solution? Some think that hiring a OC will fix the problem. With the players we have on the team now and the players that if they stick are coming to UK are not talented enough to be the "playmakers" needed to play against SEC teams much less win running the "system" in place at UK. OC can't make kids faster, stronger, or smarter. Everyone says their is nothing wrong with Jokers system when he has the players. That is true for anyteam but the problem is UK can't recruit those kind of players on a regular basis from Kentucky. And that is were recruiting should start. UK should never lose a kid to Louisville because UK is a SEC school. Louisville is a ?

    Think about this. What would Joker's record be if Cobb had not gone to UK? UK can't keep looking for the diamond in the rough to save them.

    I can agree on a few of your points, but the name calling is not necessary. Barnhart is not just the AD of football and basketball. He is over the entire athletic dept. While I dont always like some of the athletic dept decisions, he has done a good job with some of our other programs. He wants to win with football as well. If football does well, then he and the other programs benefit. I have no doubt that Mitch is right now wrestling with the decision that he will have to make after next Saturday.

  • I really dont think Mitch is wrestling with a decision to keep Joker for next year.
    And the reason goes beyond money. Like Joker latched on to a failure in Newton, Barney knows he made a pledge too early though he realizes it now.
    Still it is just the kind of stubbornness Brooks had.
    Ironic Mitch is said to have forced Hudson out against Brooks preferences. It needed to be done yet Brooks was too stubborn to do it because of his loyalty to his coach was AHEAD OF THE FOOTBALL PROGRAM.

    It is Mitch's LOYALTY to Joker that is the main problem with him not removing him at the end of the year.
    Mitch cannot make rational evaluations of coaches and lucked out with Brooks really.
    He proved that by passing on Cal the first time which was a monumental blunder.
    Now he wants to pass on Leach like he passed on Cal and like Cal, somebody will pick him up and our team will have to suffer another year minimum of mediocrity.

    Mitch-WAKE UP and see the Joker regime is OVER.
    If you wont move, pressure will grow for you to go so we can get a competent coach.

  • I have to believe Joker is back. We lose a lot of players and have a brutal schedule next year. I doubt Mitch would want to bring a new coach into that mess. The conference only gets tougher with A&M and Missouri. We have to find a way to get the money to upgrade the facilities in order to compete in our conference (and to get the type of coach all fans want). I just wonder if there is a way Mitch can begin a grassroots campaign to raise money. I am willing to contribute money over time if used specifically for football upgrades and feel that many UK fans would as well. As bad as the football team has been, we still get 70,000 people to many of the games. If we were winning 7-8 games, we could easily increase attendance 20-25%, assuming we spent the necessary money. Also, I find it ridiculous that Mitch has not explained the bonding (or lack there of) situation more clearly to fans. It is sad that a board member had to go public to defend what Mitch is trying to accomplish with the entire athletics department. The details of the IMG deal Mitch worked on should be exposed too. The Athletic Department had millions of dollars allocated towards ALL programs and the University shut it down. There may have been good reason, but I would love to know why. Just another frustrated UK Football Fan. Go Cats.

  • Jeff Drummond said... (original post)

    I don't buy the 50K thing for next year... at least starting out. Fans are always renewed with optimism as another season rolls around, even in the face of evidence that suggests its unfounded (Chicago Cubs, cough... cough)..

    The stadium will be full, again, until fans are shown reason not to show.

    I don't know Jeff. Attendance the last 3 homes games wasn't good. UK knows they have an issue with ticket sales in the spring because they are already calling season ticket holders.

    Joker will be back, but I know alot who won't be.

    Alot of us bought the Joker BS at the Governors Cup Luncheion. "I got a damn good football team." How much better Newton and the OL were. Add to that, there is still no play maker on the outside.

    This post was edited by bigbluemist 3 years ago

  • I did an analysis like this over a month ago and came out with a similar conclusion. A new coaches salary is a fixed costs assuming it is in the $1.7 range than it can be set aside as a non factor. The buyout of the head coach is a one time unforeseen expense. Assistant coach buyouts would be fairly small in comparison. Most of them are on 2 year deals.

    I placed the average total loss of revenue for one seat including K-fund, seat back & concessions sales at about $600. A loss of 2,833 seats is the break even point. If you lose more than that number of seat sales you would lose more than you would have saved by retaining Joker for that year (one year's salary) and would have been better off not extending his contract purely from a dollars and cents standpoint. Why should the entire buyout not be considered? Because if you keep him one more year you are going to be faced with either giving him a new contract or an extension or else he will be viewed as a lame duck. No one ever gets rid of a coach without a buyout of at least 2 years. So the cost of retaining him past 2012 has to be offset with lost seat sales against the 2013, 2014 seasons etc. Since you are already in a hole from lost sales in 2012 you face an even deeper problem by continuing to dig yourself into the hole.

    Of course there is always the possibility that Joker morphs into James Franklin next year but what are the odds of that? I would say if you look at historical turnarounds of bad coaches in the third year the odds would be less than 1 in 10 probably more like 1 in 20.

    Another question is: Will people actually make good on their threats not to renew? Yes. The reason I think a lot of folks who say they will not renew their tickets are sincere is the fact that the team has been so bad that they wind up not even coming to the games and can't sell their tickets for anything close to ticket price, so in essence you are paying for something that you don't use. In these times of austerity a lot of people are not going to throw their money away on something that they can't enjoy. Also the secondary market is a big piece of season ticket sales. Scalpers have not been able to get rid of anywhere near the ticket inventory this year and there are reports of people getting tickets on game day at or below face value. One person told me a scalper GAVE him tickets instead of trashing them. Ticket sales is a business for these folks to. It is speculative in nature. Does anyone think they are betting on ticket demand RISING next year? I'm not sure how many tickets are sold this way but I would bet it's well over 5,000 maybe as much as 10,000 - a lot of that isn't going to be here next year if we are faced with another year of Joker ball.

    Last, Mitch doesn't make decision in a vacuum. He is responsible for running a profitable operation. The Board will assert it's authority if they sense things going south with another year of Joker. No one knows what they will do at this stage but I think there is a strong case to be made that they need to seriously think of going a different direction.

    This post was edited by Deeeefense 3 years ago

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  • Interesting opinions on attendence. Here's my take. If UK beats UL in week 1, the fans will return to Commonwealth Stadium to give Joker's 3rd team one last chance to prove themselves. If UL gives them the business (which they will), you're gonna see home attendence drop to lower levels than we saw at any point this season.

    Fans have finally had it. Fans are seeing non-traditional football schools have success all across the country. Seeing teams like Ok State, Baylor and Kansas St beating the odds in a power conference. Seeing teams like Virginia be in the hunt for the ACC championship. Fans are seeing what is happening at Vandy. Fans have seen what Charlie Strong has done in just 2 seasons all the while playing mostly freshmen and sophs. There are plenty of other examples.

    A large number of UK fans are tired of just showing up for the tailgating. They're expecting a return on their investment (ticket and donation costs). Most have little faith in the either the coaches or players that are expected to return for next year. As a result, they'll give them one last chance (UL game). That game will tell the story for home attendence the rest of the season IMO.

  • MossCat15 said... (original post)

    Man, there are so many things this doesn't consider. First of all, you are not considering the new coaches salary, or his assistants for that matter. Then there are Joker's assistants buyouts to consider, do we know how much that cost is? Then there is the fact that we are not going to be able to get a coach who changes the outcome of games next year for a number of circumstances (tough schedule, perceived lack of talent against said schedule etc...). Look at the openings in head coaching positions in college football we will be competing against this year, then tell me you honestly feel good about our chances of landing a top coach who is going to change the outcome of games, thus having any sort of affect on our attendance. Maybe for a few games, then what happens when we start losing conference games? Will people be on here screaming to take on 2 buyouts? Then there is the economy to think about. Think this isn't having some sort of effect on things?

    How do you know attendance will drop 10,000 next year just from keeping Joker? The answer to that is simple, you don't. No one does. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Either way there are a lot of expenses that are failing to be considered. What if we get some experienced and successful offensive coordinator? Then what if we get rid of Brown and apply his stupidly lucrative contract to said offensive coordinator and hire and much cheaper, successful DB coach? Then what if we come out and start dismantling teams next year right off the bat with these changes and Joker staying on as head coach? Do you think everyone who "promised" to never come watch a Joker lead UK team play again will stay true to their word.... I don't.

    In short, just to many unknown variables for those "statistics" to have any validity whatsoever (IMO, of course).

    Your right it doesn't consider a lot and most importantly k fund donations associated with ticket decline. Many pay more for k fund than tickets. Financially it is a no brainer to make the move and hire someone like leach.

  • Jeff Drummond said... (original post)

    I don't buy the 50K thing for next year... at least starting out. Fans are always renewed with optimism as another season rolls around, even in the face of evidence that suggests its unfounded (Chicago Cubs, cough... cough)..

    The stadium will be full, again, until fans are shown reason not to show.

    JD They given me plenty reasons not to show this year. I will be in Richmond for the playoffs on Saturday instead of in Commonwealth....Don't want to subject myself to witnessing another loss to a really really bad UT team.....Debating on whether to renew next year. 6 tix is an awful lot to keep when the play is very poor.

  • usa1000 said... (original post)

    Your right it doesn't consider a lot and most importantly k fund donations associated with ticket decline. Many pay more for k fund than tickets. Financially it is a no brainer to make the move and hire someone like leach.

    Yea, then what happens when he starts losing?

  • MossCat15 said... (original post)

    Yea, then what happens when he starts losing?

    Moss: You deal with that if it happens. But I can guarantee you one thing, Leach will bring in playmakers. He will have 5 WR's on the team every year that are better than anyone we have this year. He will make a QB look like a super star. And his system is strong enough to win a baseline of 6-7 games each year assuming we keep 4 OOC games. Then his system has been shown that he can when 8-10 on other given years. Let's face it, the SEC East is way down right now. We should be able to beat Vandy, UT, and possibly USC or UGA right now. You add the mississippi schools and a one decent upset and you have a team. Bottom line, is Joker doesn't give me or anybody I know the sense that he can turn this thing around. Leach would give the excitement and name recognition that would help the program. Plus, he truly feels like he can win and win big at UK.

  • Look at the bright side, since we are not going to a bowl game the school is going to save the $126,740 it lost last season by going to one. I'm sure that extra month of practice cost the school as well.

  • bigbluemist said... (original post)

    I don't know Jeff. Attendance the last 3 homes games wasn't good. UK knows they have an issue with ticket sales in the spring because they are already calling season ticket holders.

    Joker will be back, but I know alot who won't be.

    Alot of us bought the Joker BS at the Governors Cup Luncheion. "I got a damn good football team." How much better Newton and the OL were. Add to that, there is still no play maker on the outside.

    I think you may have missed the point of what I was trying to say. Attendance was bad at the end of this season because the team had proven it was bad and had little hope.

    With the arrival of a new season, there's always hope, even for bad teams. There will be a near-capacity crowd for Game 1 no matter what. Fans will show until the team gives them a reason not to.

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  • usa1000 said... (original post)

    Moss: You deal with that if it happens. But I can guarantee you one thing, Leach will bring in playmakers. He will have 5 WR's on the team every year that are better than anyone we have this year. He will make a QB look like a super star. And his system is strong enough to win a baseline of 6-7 games each year assuming we keep 4 OOC games. Then his system has been shown that he can when 8-10 on other given years. Let's face it, the SEC East is way down right now. We should be able to beat Vandy, UT, and possibly USC or UGA right now. You add the mississippi schools and a one decent upset and you have a team. Bottom line, is Joker doesn't give me or anybody I know the sense that he can turn this thing around. Leach would give the excitement and name recognition that would help the program. Plus, he truly feels like he can win and win big at UK.

    I don't care what people say about Leach because IMO he would win here. Hell he did a pretty good job at TT when you consider TT was in the same division(South) as Texas & OU.

    He beat OU a few times and beat UT when they where ranked #1. TT finshed ranked 5 times out of 10 seasons he coached and had zero losing seasons. Plus only one time, his first season, did TT have less than a .500 conf. record.

    I see people talking about his lack of recruiting. Lets look at that.

    A. TT still had to recruit against Texas, OU, TAMU and the Power SEC schools that go into Texas each year.
    B. Couldn't find anything from the 2000-01 classes but from 2002-09 here is the class rankings,
    02 - #14
    03 - #37
    04 - #17
    05 - #36
    06 - #17
    07 - #44
    08 - #45 - 15 commits 3.00 avg. star ranking.
    09 - #30 - Not sure how much credit Leach gets for this class or how much it changed after he was fired? I'm sure kids decommitted.

    His recruiting wasn't Texas or OU good but from looking over each class it's not as bad as most think. Each of those years Texas & OU where very strong and you have to factor in other schools recruiting Texas. OSU, Nebraska, TAMU, LSU and even Arkansas recruited Texas hard during those years and most still do.

    I'm not saying Leach is the answer but I don't get where people say he wouldn't be able to win here? With the right DC IMO he would do good things at UK. But that's just me.

  • Jeff Drummond said... (original post)

    I think you may have missed the point of what I was trying to say. Attendance was bad at the end of this season because the team had proven it was bad and had little hope.

    With the arrival of a new season, there's always hope, even for bad teams. There will be a near-capacity crowd for Game 1 no matter what. Fans will show until the team gives them a reason not to.

    False.

    They will get drilled at Louisville to start the season and that alone will be cause for a 2/3 full stadium for a 12:21 game (thanks ESPN) against Kent St. Season ticket sales are going to be off at least 10%. They were this year. No reason to suspect that will change.

    Home Schedule:

    Kent St
    WKU
    Two Weeks later after a thrashing at UF and a bye week AND during Keeneland:
    South Carolina
    Georgia
    LSU
    Two Weeks later after roadies to Arkansas and Miss St
    Vandy
    Samford

    That most likely will change since Missouri and Texas A&M come on the schedule. I believe UK gets to play both new members next season.

    Where exactly is the wellspring of optimisim supposed to be again?

    Joker will be kept and it will tax the pocketbook...hard.

    This post was edited by fylm 3 years ago