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What I'm getting at is that is $13 mil per year that you would lose with a completely empty stadium. Fact is there will never ever be a completely empty stadium for these games.
Using your numbers for next season for example, we have seven home games and lets say we average only 40,000 tickets sold per game. That comes to missing out on $690,150 per home game or $4.8 million for the season. My thinking is do you pay a coach $4 million a year plus let's say a $1.5 million dollar recruiting budget (which is what some on here keep saying it will take) which is $5.5 million a year total to put $4.8 million back on the bottom line a lose $700,000 a year to fill the stands.
I'm just saying if we are talking dollars, it may be the better business decision to bring in another unknown with a similar salary as Joker (or keep Joker) in hopes that you get a slight turn around and get more seats filled without spending a ton of money doing it." As posted by Shauner17"
This is why Barnhart's decision is already made.
This post was edited by Maximus62865 21 months ago
You all aren't factoring in K-fund which is probably more revenue than the tickets themselves overall, parking passes, and vending. Adding all of those together your talking no less than $75 per person per game on average. Many seats are $100 including k-fund. Using all in $75 the 20,000 ticket drop over the last several years comes to $10.5 million drop in revenue annually.
shhh. I don't think people are supposed to know this secret.
If it has a name, it's the Vanderbilt formula. Keep expenses low and run your entire sports program off of the TV contract. As a business move, it's not a bad one.
I don't think UK is there--that it's ever been there or that anybody wants it to go there. I believe that if there's the feasibility of hiring a top-flight coach, the purse will open. But likewise, there's no need to overspend on an unproven coach. I don't even know if there's a name out there who would help season ticket sales more than any other--I think it's clear that as long as his name isn't Joker, sales will improve some and any further improvement has to come from results on the field.
And that's using only 20,000. If Joker stays we'll see even more like the other guy said. Closer to 13.5 million. I can't believe people don't understand this? It's unreal.
Empty seats will cost Joker his job!!! It is all about wins and losses, but, wins will put people in the seats, losses will not. Especially, mounting losses.
First you have to have a complete lack of understanding about running a business to think $5 Mil a year in foregone revenue isn't just important, but critical to a university that is in need a many things both on the athletic and the academic infrastructure side of things.
Second the $5 Mil figure which I think is pretty accurate for this years 30% drop in sales (including K-fund donations, parking passes etc.) is off the bottom line, not the top line. A lot of the costs of operating a football program are fixed. Coaches salaries, field maintenance, security at games, lights, equipment etc. It takes X number of dollars in ticket sales to reach break even - that is covering all those fixed costs. Ticket sales beyond break even increase the bottom line - i.e. profit. So profit is the last thing you reach and the first thing you lose.
I don't know what break even per game ticket sales is but if we suffer say another 20% loss of ticket sales next year which would hypothetically occur if there are no major changes, then it would be approaching close to break even IMO. Losses beyond break even mean it's costing you money every time they play instead of making money.
By every measure the lost ticket sales has had an enormous impact on those in decision making positions, and I fully expect some significant changes to occur in the coming months because of it.
This post was edited by Deeeefense 21 months ago
"Ignorance is constricted awareness" - Deepak Chopra
I understand what you're saying completely! Trust me I know $5 mil. in lost revenue is important but what I'm saying is would't you spend $4-5 mil plus a larger recruiting purse to put that $5 mil. back on the bottom line? At that point does the return on investment warrant the risk of pursuing a "top" guy like most think we should. Or will they not take that risk, hire another Joker type and hope he pans out and puts asses in seats without pouring money into the program. This is where I think the smartest "business" decision lies. So do empty seats fire Joker? Maybe, maybe not. Either way I think next season you have a head coach that UK is taking a chance on filling those seats with minimal financial risk.I.E. Joker with the hope that next year is the year we turn the corner, or a new Joker type they hope will bring enough excitement / curiosity to the program to raise ticket sales.
As far as the K-Fund stuff goes who is naive enough to think that donation are going to suffer badly from this when basketball rules all things Kentucky here and you must donate more money to the K-Fund to be eligible for basketball season tickets? Parking? All the reserved parking is still sold out. Even with the 20% decline in ticket sales this year I was unable to get an Orange lot pass but I'm still on the waiting list...
But, make no mistake. Most of the revenue from football comes from the SEC TV contract as well as the bowl split. That is why UK will never consider re-aligning with a different conference. Because the SEC owns the football market and we get an equal share if we finish first or dead last every year.
This post was edited by shauner17 21 months ago
Not following your argument here. You must make a hefty donation to the K-fund to secure the better football seats as well.
First, no one has gotten new basketball tickets except for a very few insiders in 20 years so that is fixed. Basketball is great but it brings relatively few alumni and supporters to Lexington because the games are often during the week and if you are lucky you can get two tickets. Football on the other hand brings in tens of thousands of alumni and supporters for every game which is an all day event. It is critical in building support and private funding for the University. It builds generations which attend and identify with UK. Football has a huge effect on non-athletic fund raising. Having said all that it is absurd to short fund the football program to shunt funding to non-revenue sports. I just got my offer for complimentary free tickets to women's basketball. Think about that. I am happy for the women to do well but the truth is just very few people care enough to buy a ticket to a game. Think again why would UK then spend more on a women's basketball coach than they do on coordinators for football. It is just a foolish business model with a narrow view of the future.
You can take the parking passes out of the equation. They were sold out this year and there is already a waiting list for next year's passes.
A couple of things here...
I do think that empty seats can fire Joker. That said, Commonwealth Stadium is not near empty enough to do that. We still have more people attending games than at Vandy and they are running an athletic program and seem to be doing ok. I think season ticket sales will have to drop as much again next year as they did this year before it really starts to have an impact on things.
Didn't mean to put "A couple of things here..."
the other thing wasn't really related to this topic so I didn't post it.
The money generated through the TV deal is a fixed asset. The dollars from the ticket sales are a variable asset. I sure hope Mitch is not covering expenses like salaries, building cost and lease aggrements with a variable asset. Then it becomes a house of cards.
I'm not saying that isn't true, but I am saying I was offered a parking pass this year. Before the season started and season ticket sales went to hell I was about another 3-4 years of point accumulation away from being able to get into the parking pass level. Maybe they all got sold, but that's because they probably got left to first year ticket buyers.
The Vandy stadium point you make is irrelevant ... Vandy's stadium is less than 2/3 the size of Commonwealth to start with. Our attendance could drop by 25,000 a game (from capacity) and we'd still have more seats filled than Vandy.
I got a question. Btw I was for Joker as head coach up till the Gators and Hogs. Now I think he should go.
But most if us have said that this would be a bad yr, & next yr we could be really good. With that said,
If Joker comes back and we are good like alot of ys think we will be,
Will people still not come to games if Joker is our coach but we are winning?
Will we give the credit to Joker for "Turning it around" next yr if we are good, with a team we already think is going to be good next yr?
As I've said multiple times, I will be there regardless of who is coaching. I support the school and the kids representing my school. Empty seats embarass the kids playing for us, and hurt future recruiting. I don't see how anyone can argue that point.
Sadly, I believe there were people who stopped coming to the games when Joker took the job. I don't think I need to explain why, but honeslty I'm glad those fools are gone. There was another batch of fans who had very little patience, and jumped ship with his first bad loss. Nevermind Joker's streak ending wins over South Carolina and Tennessee. I think we can get some of those fans back with quality SEC wins. It's too bad we've had so many injuries, particular to the QBs, I think we could have gotten some of those wins with Max Smith.
Point is, the original poster asked if empty seats fire joker, I don't think so. Losses will fire Joker. Our fans (real fans), should support this program as if it's their own kids out there playing. They deserve it.
From one enabler to another...Hoople great post! +1
You might be right, maybe not, but I can guarantee you that your empty seat will effect the caliber of coaches interested in coming here.
What coach worth his salt will want to come to a program with so many fickle and apathetic fans? The Kentucky football coaching job is already damn near impossible by itself. Enthusiastic and loyal fan support is the one thing that UK can have to help balance the scales a little bit. I wish more fans would understand that. You don't see empty stands at Arkansas or Auburn when they have bad seasons. That is one of the reasons why top caliber coaches will always be interested in those jobs. Kentucky doesn't have the best football facilities in the conference, and we certainly don't have the most fertile recruiting grounds in our state, but we do have one of the greatest fan bases in college athletics, when we want to be.
“People who live in the past are afraid to compete in the present. There's no future in it.” -- Sparky Anderson
Parking passes could be the biggest rip off outside of gas prices that we have seen in some time...
There are evil things being done in the kingdom my lord. lol
I have absolutely no clue. Its ridiculous
His older bro is staunch UK guy and no clue how he picked the Dawgs.
This post was edited by KnownAsB 21 months ago
When Arkansas and Auburn have more than one or two bad seasons consecutively, they don't have to worry about people not coming to the games because they fire the coach. I completely disagree with a coach not coming here because the fans don't show up to a game. If they do any kind of research into the program they will see that we have been one of the better fanbases in the country for showing up and supporting our team. Since we expanded the stadium we seem to always be in the top 25-30 for attendance. We aren't getting much higher than that because it's not possible with the limited amount of seats we have versus other schools. Any potential coach should be able to see that the fans here are simply tired of being one of the worst football programs in the country in the last 50 years. I don't care if there are only 200 people in attendance on Saturday. If we were to go out and somehow get a name coach we would sell out season tickets for next year probably within a couple of days of them going on sale. If we just made a decent hire we would average 60K fans a game next year which puts us right there in the top 25 in attendance.
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