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This would be a great scenario to unfold. ^
Sure, the 2006 squad got blown out some. They were also incredibly lucky (+15 turnover margin), which is how they won seven games. I think this team would need something surprising like that to turn in a seven win season. Could it happen? Sure. But expecting it is like hitting on 18 at the blackjack table.
Actually, you said something about an 8-4 team (After the bowl). So I didn't know what you were talking about. That said, I addressed it now. You pinning your hopes on going +15 in turnover margin?
Turnover margin is not luck...not even close.
That is a poor, poor argument and statement.
i'm begining to suspect a troll here. You don't have a +15 turnover margin on accident. The good qb's in Joker Phillips time have been VERY VERY VERY good at protecting the football...
The defense was actually pretty darn good late in the season. For two reasons. A. Because our players got familiar with the scheme. B. Because Rumph, Cobble and & really improved as the season went on and starting playing very well.
I will predict 6-6 regular season. One, I think Joker will open up the offense which will keep the defense off the field more. Two, we are playing with a choice of 2 QBs (Smith and Towles) that can both throw with touch. Three, the defense has a bowl season, two springs, and will have two fall sessions under Minter which should allow the unit to make a big step forward. Fourth and lastly, I know it is in vogue to bash the team now, but I had a conversation last week with a former player that goes to practice regularly and he said the team is much improved from last year. He commented specifically on the improved QB and WR/TE play. I think that showed to be true in the B/W Game. Here is to hoping we can get it done.
everybody keeps saying guy and trevathan r so irreplacable and i just dont c it. they were damn good players but neither guy is even a lock to be drafted u mean to tell me we want have some guys that play for next yrs day that cld play in the nfl. i beg to differ. the young talent we r starting to accumulate on defense is very encouraging.
Turnover margin is not ALL luck, but it is certainly part luck. The 2006 UK defense couldn't stop anybody, but forced turnovers left, right, and center. For instance, Ole Miss outgained UK 395-380, but turned the ball over five times. Central Michigan outgained UK by almost 200 yards, but lost turnovers 4-2. Vandy outgained UK that year as well, but was -3 on turnovers in that game. All everybody remembers from 2006 was the high powered offense, but that 8-5 team outgained their opponents THREE times all year-- vs. Texas State, vs. UT, and vs. Clemson in the bowl (by seven yards). They lost to UT.
The same players and a better defense in 2007 didn't approach that turnover margin... which is how 2006 and 2007 teams won eight games. 2007 was miles better, but 2006, frankly, was more than a little lucky. On the other hand, I think that 2007 team had no luck at all. Those guys easily could've won nine regular season games-- that was the best shot at a real SEC competitor I've seen from UK in my lifetime.
how many turnovers did we have in 2007 compared to 2006?
You can suspect what you want. If you can't demonstrate why I'm wrong, you can just call me names. Go for it.
We had a +15 turnover margin in 2006 because the defense miraculously forced turnovers left, right, and center. Which was odd, since they couldn't stop anybody. UK was outgained in 10 of the 13 games that year, but was 6-4 in those games, mostly because other teams got the yips.
The QBs have been remarkably similar in the last ten years in turnovers. Here are UK's total interception numbers since 2001 by year: 13, 6, 10, 11, 9, 7, 12, 13, 11, 9, 12. This tells me we didn't have a +15 turnover margin in 2006 mostly because of the QB play... we had it because our defense hit a ridiculous hot streak in getting fumbles mostly. Here are the fumbles recovered by UK since 2001 by year: 8, 12, 6, 11, 11, 18, 10, 14, 6, 7, 10. Yep, the 18 year was 2006. The 2007 defense gave up about 57 yards per game less, but got eight less fumbles, and thus didn't win any more games. Throw in an extra two fumbles by USC jr. or UT or UGA in 2007 and we might've been back in the Outback Bowl.
And that's what I'm trying to get at here. Could this team be like 2006, with emerging young players keying an unexpected improvement? Sure. But it's contingent on everything bouncing UK's way-- like some fumbles. Could that happen? Sure. Do I hope it happens? You bet. How many good surprises have there been since the Curry days? VERY few, with 2002 and 2006 the ones that stand out in my memory. How many bad surprises have there been? Well, you got an hour to talk about it?
28 in 2007, 17 in 2006-- Mostly due to fumbles. 2007 team fumbled 30 times, losing 16. 2006 team fumbled 20 times, losing 10.
We also scored 9.8 points per game more in 2007, and gained 68 yards per game more than in 2006.
I rest my case...
What case? UK's great 2006 TO margin was because Woodson was great at not turning the ball over, and the same Woodson somehow became terrible at turning the ball over the next year? Look, he threw 11 picks in 2007 and 7 in 2006. Maybe he got lucky on one or two throws in 2006, or unlucky on one or two in 2007. But he was the same player. He threw 99 more passes in 2007 too.
Uk was a little better than normal in 2006 at not turning the ball over. They also were out of this world at forcing turnovers from other teams, despite the fact that Vandy torched that defense for over 600 yards and Central Michigan had 550. Need I remind you that UL-Monroe put up 40 on us.
Anyway, in the present. UK turned the ball over 24 times in 2011. Could they cut that to, say, 20? Sure. They also forced 25 turnovers in 2011. Could they improve that to 28 or 30? Sure. Could they both happen at the same time? Unlikely, but yeah, it's possible. And that would give a +8 to +10 margin. What gives for a +15 margin again? Either a team that NEVER turns the ball over, which is hard to do if you're going to score points, or a team that gets really lucky in forcing turnovers. Loose balls stay in bounds instead of rolling out, tipped passes get caught by linebackers, instead of bobbled and dropped.
I'd love to see it. I'd love to see zero unemployment, a balanced budget, and revision of the tax codes as well. But if you ask me what's going to happen, I doubt I see any of those things. That's all I'm saying.
It's amusing reading your posts. You make things that are very realistic sound as if you are trying to climb mount everest naked as a 150 year old man who has no legs.
Your posts in this thread are all this way. We won 5 games last year with a team that likely is one of the worst since the curry era. Anybody who thinks reasonably knows that this year's team will be better. But somehow 3-4 wins is the likely result. Makes no sense, you probably know that too.
I'm finished arguing with this illogical contingent of our fans.
On the bright side, you at least amused me. If there's a more accurate slogan than "UK Football: Making Things That Are Very Realistic Sound As If You Are Trying To Climb Mount Everest Naked as a 150 Year Old Man Who Has No Legs", I'm not sure what it is.
Again, I hope you are 110% right. Pile me up a huge plate of crow, and I will dine on it come October or November with a smile on my face. Just be prepared on the other hand for a 4-8 team and a coaching search in November. I'll be cheering my butt off for the first, but expecting the second.
Not sure why Missouri would be an upset special, I believe that they lost at least 14 starters maybe more from last years team. when we play them at that point in the season they could be a little shell shocked from their first go around in the SEC
He meant it as a team that we could upset.
Follow me on twitter @ TailgatingCzar
I'm not going to make any predictions yet, just too many variables at this point. The freshmen coming in could make an impact at several position, have to see how a few guys respond that were either banged-up or had some academic work to do, and see if there are any more departures from the program between now and fall.
Now with that being said I do believe the offense will be head and shoulders ahead of where it was last year. The OL while being younger and not having the depth we need (as of this writing) still may be better than last year, I don't think most understand how impaired last year's line was with the injuries they played thru. Maxwell looks like a different guy, much more confident in his abilities and with the guys catching the ball. The WR and TE positions look like they will be able to help the QB out some this year, big plus. Lastly I think we will have a couple of guys at RB that can punish a defense which we have seen so many teams do to UK over the years. Those guys pick up 4 or 5 yards a pop and wear down the LBs and DBs that step up to stop them, then late in the game you see those runs taking effect and the runs that were going for 3 yards are the start of the game start going for 7 or 8 yards. Guys like CoShik will benefit as well because their speed will be more effective later in games as well.
Defensively I'm still torn, I guess I'm in wait and see mode because while I love our options at DT and DE I'm curious to see if our LBs can step up as well as our secondary. IMO the DL will perform well enough to have UK in the middle of the SEC pack, the question is can the back seven perform at that level. If they can that would bode very well for UK's chances of going back to a bowl game, if they can't....we will struggle mightily.
Lastly I know our special teams are a concern, mainly because we will rely on a freshman punter but the kid has a tremendous leg and I think punter may be the easiest position to transition from HS to college, it isn't like a placekicker that has to adjust to a different tee.
Overall I think the spectrum ranges anywhere between 4 and 7 regular season wins, I think there would have to be something extraordinary happen for UK to slip below or above that range.
"Kentucky Football needs to be and will be a championship contender in the SEC."~Mitch Barnhart 11/4/12
ST's are the one area that's got me the most concerned. Must find a KR/PR and a punter this fall.
I'm comfortable that we won't go 4-8. Easier schedule, better team, better coaching (joker's 3rd year, Minter a full year)... Outside of Punting I'm not sure why our special teams will be worse. Our return game was close to the worst in the nation last year...
The return game for kickoffs for all teams will be greatly affected by the rules changes IMO. Unfortunately (if you have a stud return game) it may lessen the impact on the game. If you don't, it may level the playing field.
I'm not pinning my hopes on anything in my last statement, I'm just simply punching holes in your argument. You can shift your argument as to why those holes are there if you like (in true LOD fashion), but thats on you.
My "hopes" are pinned on the FACT that when we started playing some of these younger guys last year we made a marked competitive improvement. Also, the FACT that we managed to eek out 5 wins with an "offensive" offense that has no where to go but up. Now, I expect a pretty steep upward curve in production offensively, and maybe that is the fan or unrealistic side of me, but the rest is all quite realistic and your views are extremely negative and everyone here telling you that should tell you something. Also the tone of your first post led me to believe you are simply someone who lost hope and are just not thinking rationally. To each his own I guess.
If we get some playmaking ability from the freshman then I think 7 wins becomes much more possible. Any predictions made on my part are made without even factoring in the freshman. If a guy like Whitlow or Sweat comes in and is special from the jump things will be looking up. If some of the young lineman can play thats even better. What would really be nice is for a guy like to Tiller to come in and be a playmaker at Corner. I think this is a special class we've got coming in and some of them will have to play.
Yup, but the punter is still quite concerning though.
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