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This thread is actually somewhat reasonable and was a good read. I say that as a Cards fan. I checked out the Rivals UK site and had to leave because it just got me so mad. No real basketball talk, just blind hatrid. I read Siva being called a "thug" several times because he has a linebeard. Siva is all class if you know anything about him other than seeing he has tattoos and facial hair. You can debate how good a PG you think he is, but that stuff is stupid. I also don't get all the people insisting Pitino just instructs players to foul constantly and that is the reason U of L's D is stingy. Louisville plays physical, and yes they will get some reach-ins going for steals. They still play within the same rules as everybody else, and if they foul too much they will be punished by the other team racking up points at the line. So far they aren't being "punished" too much.
As for this matchup, I think Harrow will do okay and handle the pressure by Russ and Siva decently. A couple turnovers, but also a couple of times he'll get loose in the open court and score. I think Goodwin will be the guy frustrated to no end. He will get some buckets, but he will have several turnovers, charges, and just all around out of control play.
I think Pitino will make sure Wiltjer and Mays don't get good looks from 3, especially Wiltjer. He might get 1 or 2 on breakdowns, but not many. Mays could be left open more often, so he has some potential to get hot and score double figures.
I think the Cards win this one. Could get ugly, but I'll say 10-12 points. Still, I realize this is just a regular season game and doesn't somehow erase the past 3 years, especially the Final 4 game. Still all about cutting the nets down in April.
Don't like it either, but we are so young in more ways than ever before, physically, mentally and age that we can't handle a hostile crowd. We gave the Doofs (Duke) on a neutral court without Harrow, so I think we will rise to the occasion, but free throws, crowd and the men in stripes will allow the red losers to prevail
L - 80
UK - 74
Okay, I have to change my prediction. A little. I don't think we will lose by 28. That was negative me coming out. But i do think we lose this game 72-54. I think there will be too many fouls and will be too ugly of a game for UL to score 88 points. But i still think we lose by 18. I know that isn't that much different but its 10 points.
Here is a page 3 link to the Prediction Summary Table
Pitino while at KY taught the back tap as a method of causing turnovers and causing deflections as a way to disrupt the other teams rythym so I dont think these methods are anything that the UK fans havent seen before. I dont think the refs will have anything to do with the outcome of the game but I will disagree with you about Goodwin at least in Sats. game and in fact he will be great against UL. He played pretty well in the other "big" game we have had this year and he will do the same in this one. He will show why he will be by years end 1 of the best SGs in the country. But unfortunately it wont be enough and my prediction was 80-70 UL But remember Cal has a habit of getting his teams ready for these types of games and we are due for a great game so beware.
This is what I want my prediction to be now that Dieng is for sure playing.
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UK 67 UL 64
2 1/2 hours to tip off
Buckle your seat belts, this one is about to begin.
I will add any last minute predictions to the table. Use the following link to find the results after the game. During the second half, this table will show projected standings based on projected final scores.
UK scored its 28 points in a total of 32 possessions for the half, and LOUISVILLE scored its 36 points on a total of 32 possessions. The teams battled to a 19-19 tie on the boards, but Kentucky managed a 1 rebound advantage, 7-6, on the offensive glass in the first half. The Cats used their offensive rebounds to gain a 9-6 advantage on second chance points. LOUISVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.938 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 0.590 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.286 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a respectable 35.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LOUISVILLE was able to convert 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this half, making 5 of 10 attempts (50.0%). LOUISVILLE finished 4-6 [66.7%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 10-27 overall [37.0%] and 3.9 from long range [33.3%]. For LOUISVILLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 13-28[46.4%] and from long range, LOUISVILLE hit 2-3 [66.7%].
The Cats committed 7 turnovers, one for every 4.6 possessions. The Cats forced 4 LOUISVILLE turnovers, one for every 8.0 possessions.
UK scored its 77 points in 72 possessions [1.07 ppp] for the game, and LOUISVILLE scored its 80 points on 71 possessions [1.13 ppp].
Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 39-36, and Kentucky won the offensive glass with a 12-11 offensive rebounding advantage. LOUISVILLE converted its 11 second chance possessions into 13 second chance points while Kentucky converted their 12 second chance possessions to score 16 second chance points. LOUISVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.944 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.182 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.847 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 32.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LOUISVILLE was able to convert 28.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 11-23[47.8%]. LOUISVILLE made 17-25 [68.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 28-59 overall [48.3%] and 10-21from long range [47.6%]. For LOUISVILLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak 27-55[49.1%] and from long range, LOUISVILLE hit 3-7 [42.9%].
The Cats who committed 15 turnovers, one for every 4.8 possessions. The Cats forced 9 LOUISVILLE turnovers, one for every 7.9 possessions.
Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 15 point UK loss, 76-61 at a pace of 70 possessions for UK and 70 possessions for Louisville. The final score was 80 (76) to 77 (61) at a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 71 possessions for LOUISVILLE. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 1.069 ppp (0.871 ppp) and the UK defensive efficiency was 1.127 ppp (1.068 ppp).
I have updated the cumulative standings through all 12 games for all three methods of comparison. YOu can see them on the game webpage.
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