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Notre Dame 17
I saw that list and was kind of surprised he had UK #1 preseason considering the rest of the pundiffs are looking towards Indiana or Louisville.But very interesting also that he had Ohio State #2.
Little surprised Kansas wasn't higher. Self's teams are always among the most efficient in the country.
It's partly because he uses last years numbers as an early determinate of efficiency if I understand correctly. Professor should be able to clarify that. Regardless, this is the most objective poll for college basketball and the one I pay the most attention to.
I guess I dont understand how he does what he does because to me, if you base this years poll position partly or wholly upon last years numbers as a means to determine efficiency how can you do that if all of the past years players are gone except 1 that wasnt really involved and you have all new players this year? Arent you placing a value on unknown quantities(players)? Thanks for the info I guess I just dont understand .
I'm not sure I completely understand his formula either for preseason rankings. Again, Professor can help us out next time he's on. I just know not to put a whole lot of stock into this until December, but he began last season with UK at the 1 spot too. I know we had three guys return then, but it Pomeroy might base it some off how a coaches team performs efficiency-wise over the course of time and factor in that somehow.
Even when the Knight led Cats were struggling on the road in the SEC they still held a top 10 spot in efficiency. This isn't based as much on wins and losses like your traditional polls. That's why I prefer Pomeroy's. Anyway, I'm glad to see he's began two straight seasons with the Cats at 1.
Oh, and it just came to me, maybe with his new affiliations he's been able to access freshmen HS and AAU statistics to include in his preseason ranking. I noticed he ranks UCLA at 6 and they figure to be led by a couple of freshmen.
On his blog he states he includes the top 100 freshman. He also states he determines offensive and defensive efficiency on the past few seasons. So, that is likely where his computer determined to rank UK and Ohio St. at 1 & 2. The two teams that began and ended 1 & 2 a season ago.
Preseason polls are fun to look at but in the end they don't mean jack.
The link below is to a thread one year ago when the Pomeroy starting point was posted.
Does that pre-season rating capture the final ratings precisely? Of course not, but in hind sight, they were not too bad. UNC suffered a serious loss due to injury. Who would have thought UL as #8 one year ago before a single game? UK #1. He missed Kansas last year, but who did get that right pre-season.
As for his starting numbers, I believe Pomeroy is secretive about his methods, but year in and year out, his methods have established an enviable track record.
As I said throughout last season, I want my team to be at the top of Pomeroy's list. 6 of the last 10 NCAA champions finished the year rated #1 by Pomeroy's efficiency system. Two more champions finished #2, and only 2 of the last 10 were not 1 or 2, and both of them were top 10. So, when I get a first glimpse of Pomeroy's numbers, I take great comfort in finding Kentucky anywhere in the top 5 to start the race.
As for when will the numbers settle down after actual games begin, my experience is that by the time teams play between 5 and 8 games, the noise in the system has calmed sufficiently to have a reliable picture of the relationship of one team to another..
I know his preseason rankings donCuse. Other notable rankings 8) UofL
This post was edited by TheProfessor 18 months ago
Here is a link to a summary I prepared last December. As you can see, I penciled UK in as the 2012 Champion at that time.
Either this website doesn't exist or is not currently available.
Sleepy, Pomeroy's most recent post should give you a better understanding of how he determines preseason rankings. He obviously doesn't give away his formula, but gives insight that makes things more clear.
Thanks ill take a look at it.
That's interesting but how many that he ranked #1 preseason became eventual champions? I know it hardly ever happens in other polls so I'm always glad when UK isn't picked #1 in the preseason polls. It's a jinx. I can't say Pomeroy #1 preseason ranking is a jinx. I'm not familiar with it enough.
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