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Kentucky now the No. 2 seed after last night's games:
Am I reading the tie-breaker right that if we go 1-1 and everybody else wins this weekend we will be the 2 seed?
Might depend on who they're tied with, but Kentucky would be the #2 if it is in two-way tie with Ole Miss or Mizzou by viture of head-to-head win. Would be the #3 if two-way tie with Alabama.
If it's a four-way tie between UK, Mizzou, Alabama and Ole Miss I think UK is the #2 based on being 2-1 against those other teams, which would be the best winning percentage (Mizzou 2-2, Alabama 1-2, Ole Miss 2-2). Mizzou has a really tough game at Tennessee on Saturday. Alabama hosts UGA and Ole Miss at LSU.
It just kills me that the vols are 6th in the SEC, but Lunardi sees them as in the tourney. Any way AU can muster up some magic and whip them on Sr night? If not hopefully Mizzou can get off the losing on the road bandwagon and ruin their Sr day. Whatever, the tourney has already started for us. If We lose to another not so good team (Ga) and fail to beat the Gators I just don't see us getting in without a major run in the SEC tourney (final game run).
When you look closely at the resumes at the other teams we are supposedly up against, I have a hard time seeing the committee taking many of them over us.
We don't have the "horendous" losses that a lot of the "bubble" teams have. Sure, we only have one top "50" win, but we've won on the road (something the committee supposedly values) and we've won the games we were supposed to for the most part...
When you boil it down, if we beat UGA on the road, something UT couldn't do and we win a game in the sec tourney against a decent team, the committee can't put an 18 or 19 win sec or non power conference team in ahead of us. The math just doesn't add up.
I'm convinced that too many folks are putting WAY too much stock into LUnardi's lists. Lunardi's success rate is not based on what he says the field will be a week before it's announced. It's the list he releases the day the field of 68 is announced. I'm willing to bet that it will change a ton, and will likely include uk if we win 2 more games.
Consider that every other major "bracketologist" has us in the field of 68 right now.
This post was edited by hoptownukfan 13 months ago
I studied this for a bit last night, heres how it plays out: If we beat Georgia, the only way we don't get the two seed is if Alabama wins its final game AND all of UK, Missouri, and ole miss lose their final game. This scenerio would put us in a two team tie with Alabama where they hold the head to head tie breaker.
However, if three or more teams are tied the tie breaker would be the best winning percentage of games played among the tied teams. There are several 3-4 team ties we can find ourself in if we beat Georgia and lose to Florida. They are too complicated to type out, one ending in which team had the best winning percentage against the 5 seed, but I can assure you, I ran through all of them and we win the two seed in all multiple team ties at 12-6.
Happy, thanks for the research and the post. However, would this be the same scenario if we lost on the road to Georgia but beat Florida at home? TIA GO CATS!!!
Yes, it would be the same. The only difference in that scenario would be us being in better shape to get into the NCAA tournament. It would be the same as far as sec tournament seeding though.
Man its bad that we're the #2 seed in the SEC. Just bad.
When it boils down to it they will take a team that is playing better than others in March no matter what they did in Nov/Dec. So I can see Tennessee getting in before us because they have been playing really well with a blowout win over us and a win vs. Florida. I think they still need to win a few games in the SEC tourney though...but so do we in my opinion.
They just lost to uga too.
Folks are over thinking this. If we get 21 or 22 wins we will get in. You can't put a team that finishes behind us in the conference in over us. Especially it we have 2 or 3 more wins and don't have the embarrassing losses. If we finish second in the conference and win a game in Nashville we're in.
In a typical UK season, I'd agree with you. Problem this year is that UK's resume is weaker than usual and there are a lot of other bubble teams that will end up with 21 or 22 (or more) wins and much stronger resumes with some significant 'good wins' ... which UK doesn't have.
This. I dont care how many wins you have if you dont have quality wins you dont get in. Just because we have beat teams that have quality wins does not make us get in. Just ask those teams in the weaker conferences that go 26-5 and dont get in ever year. When they look at UK and UT and see what UT did to UK without Nerlens...it will be tough to let UK in over UT. If Nerlens was coming back by the 2nd round of the tourney id say we would get in based on that. It isnt just numbers that gets people in is what I was trying to say.
they can look at what UT did after the beat us too. They lost to UGA. If we beat UGA tonight, on the road we will have done something UT didn't do.
The bubble is VERY weak this year. We aren't operating in a vacume. You've got teams that don't have 20 wins from non-power conferences who are considered bubble teams. Indiana State? Look at their record. Look at the records of these non power conference "bubble" teams.
In terms of "quality wins..." We don't have the awful losses.
If we win two more games we're in.
We just need to beat UF. We can do it. UF is not untouchable. If UT can beat them at home then we can too. Especially if we're talking about why we should get in the tourney over them.
We lost to Notre Dame and Baylor.....and Georgia and Alabama...and Arkansas...I dont wanna relive all of that....there are others that work their butts off that deserve to be in over this team. I hate it, but its a fact.
Kentucky is still the No. 2 seed heading into Saturday's game, but in a four-way tie. A lot of variables for Saturday.
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