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Vandy opens an 11 1/2 point favorite

  • As it gets closer to kickoff, it's now Vanderbilt -13 1/2 versus the Cats.

  • A loss is a loss...period. Vandy has losses several games giving up big leads for a reason. They are very VERY undisciplined. One of, if not the most, penalized teams in the conference. That will show up again tomorrow.

    As for home field advantage...they don't have one. They have been begging fans to come out to the game all week. Dont read too much into Max playing on the road IMO.

    Vandy does have some talent, but I wouldnt say they are a better team. What areas are they better in? We should control the line of scrimmage on both sides today. The D has looked very good recently, and after all we have been thru we are so close to a 6th straight bowl. Danny T and Guy IMO will not allow the D to let them down and the confidence of the offense may be as high as its been all year.

    Take the points. Take the over. Jmho

    This post was edited by tommy 3 years ago

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  • tommy said... (original post)

    A loss is a loss...period. Vandy has losses several games giving up big leads for a reason. They are very VERY undisciplined. One of, if not the most, penalized teams in the conference. That will show up again tomorrow.

    As for home field advantage...they don't have one. They have been begging fans to come out to the game all week. Dont read too much into Max playing on the road IMO.

    Vandy does have some talent, but I wouldnt say they are a better team. What areas are they better in? We should control the line of scrimmage on both sides today. The D has looked very good recently, and after all we have been thru we are so close to a 6th straight bowl. Danny T and Guy IMO will not allow the D to let them down and the confidence of the offense may be as high as its been all year.

    Take the points. Take the over. Jmho

    I'm not sure I agree with anything in your post other than a loss is a loss and Vandy has a lot of penalties.

  • 5368ppi said... (original post)

    I'm not sure I agree with anything in your post other than a loss is a loss and Vandy has a lot of penalties.

    Your right, Vandy has a HUGE home field advantage in the SEC. Teams literally piss themselves while waiting in the tunnel due to the fear of it crumbling on top of them because if so many rabid Vandy football fans. Are you serious? They have even tried giving the tickets away for free numerous times just to get people to come to games, that's a fact. This week they have damn near begged fans to come out. Winning on the road in the SEC is the hardest thing to do in college football, but if a kid is going to make his first road start then Vandy is the overwhelming favorite to do so.

    As for the two teams. Where is Vandy's advantage at exactly?
    Is their O line better?
    Is their D line better?
    Are their LBs better?
    After answering question #1, is their running game better?
    Are they more disciplined?

    Seriously, you should have left that post in your back pocket if your not going back anything up with why you disagree with everything I said.

    This post was edited by tommy 3 years ago

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  • Let's look at these two teams:

    Games played: 9 each Exactly the same

    Schedule Strength, Sagarin: UK 69.45 Vandy 75.25

    Scoring: UK 18 ppg Vandy 24.8 ppg Advantage Vandy
    Pts Allowed: UK 25.8 ppg Vandy 23.1 ppg Advantage Vandy

    First Downs, Earned/Allowed: UK 15.7/19.4 Vandy 15.4/19.0 About the same

    Rushing, Attempts/Yds per Carry: UK 36.6/3.7 Vandy 34.9/4.5 Advantage Vandy
    Rushing Def, Att's/Yds per Carry: UK 40.1/4.9 Vandy 38.3/3.5 Advantage Vandy

    Passing, Att's-Completions-Interception/Yds per Att: UK 29.1-14.9-1.1/4.9 Vandy 26.8-14.3-1.3/6.3 Advantage Vandy
    Pass Def, Att's-Completions-Interceptions/Yds per Att: UK 28.0-14.6-1.2/6.9 Vandy 29.7-17.1-1.7/7.0 About the same

    Penalties, No/Yds per Game: UK 4/32.4 Vandy 7.1/59.8 Advantage UK

    Total Fumbles/Lost: UK 16/9 Vandy 16/8 About the same
    Total Fumbles/Lost, Def: UK 12/6 Vandy 24/8 Advantage Vandy

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  • TheProfessor said... (original post)

    Let's look at these two teams:

    Games played: 9 each Exactly the same

    Schedule Strength, Sagarin: UK 69.45 Vandy 75.25

    Scoring: UK 18 ppg Vandy 24.8 ppg Advantage Vandy
    Pts Allowed: UK 25.8 ppg Vandy 23.1 ppg Advantage Vandy

    First Downs, Earned/Allowed: UK 15.7/19.4 Vandy 15.4/19.0 About the same

    Rushing, Attempts/Yds per Carry: UK 36.6/3.7 Vandy 34.9/4.5 Advantage Vandy
    Rushing Def, Att's/Yds per Carry: UK 40.1/4.9 Vandy 38.3/3.5 Advantage Vandy

    Passing, Att's-Completions-Interception/Yds per Att: UK 29.1-14.9-1.1/4.9 Vandy 26.8-14.3-1.3/6.3 Advantage Vandy
    Pass Def, Att's-Completions-Interceptions/Yds per Att: UK 28.0-14.6-1.2/6.9 Vandy 29.7-17.1-1.7/7.0 About the same

    Penalties, No/Yds per Game: UK 4/32.4 Vandy 7.1/59.8 Advantage UK

    Total Fumbles/Lost: UK 16/9 Vandy 16/8 About the same
    Total Fumbles/Lost, Def: UK 12/6 Vandy 24/8 Advantage Vandy

    Prof, you know how much I respect and appreciate your posts and the contribution to the site with your statistical breakdowns.

    However, this time Im afraid I have to dismiss many of the stats you just put up.
    The majority of these stats were compiled by an offense with Morgan Newton at the helm, a defense with no confidnece in the offense as well as being on the field for what seemed like 90% of the time, and finally a team overall with serious confidence issues. Now I'm not saying Max Smith is Andrew Luck but he and his play have changed this team IMO.
    You cannot downplay his effect.

    The offense has been moving the chains which has not only lead to more points but has reenergized the D.

    All of those things you listed are no doubt important but if you drill down and simplify things a little more I think UK has big advantages.

    Where is the game won? The trenches
    UK IMO has a big big advantage on the O line especially now that its the healthiest its been all year and playing very very well.
    We also have (again jmho) UK also has the advantage on the D line.

    Simpky put, we win the battle of the line of scrimmage then we win the game.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by tommy 3 years ago

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  • tommy said... (original post)

    Prof, you know how much I respect and appreciate your posts and the contribution to the site with your statistical breakdowns.

    However, this time Im afraid I have to dismiss many of the stats you just put up. The majority of these stats were compiled by an offense with Morgan Newton at the helm, a defense with no confidnece in the offense as well as being on the field for what seemed like 90% of the time, and finally a team overall with serious confidence issues. Now I'm not saying Max Smith is Andrew Luck but he and his play have changed this team IMO. You cannot downplay his effect.

    The offense has been moving the chains which has not only lead to more points but has reenergized the D.

    All of those things you listed are no doubt important but if you drill down and simplify things a little more I think UK has big advantages.

    Where is the game won? The trenches UK IMO has a big big advantage on the O line especially now that its the healthiest its been all year and playing very very well. We also have (again jmho) UK also has the advantage on the D line.

    Simpky put, we win the battle of the line of scrimmage then we win the game.

    Tommy,

    I understand that these are season long stats, and I also appreciate that the Maxwell Smith, the UK offense has been more productive than these season averages, but the defensive performance has not been stellar this season either, and there is no new Maxwell Smith on that side of the ball.

    Today, we find out whether the team has really changed, or whether last week was a version of fools gold. I don't know the answer to that question, and I submit, we will find out the answers at about the same time today, as we watch this game unfold.

    My point is that there is a basis to argue that Vandy has had a better performance this season than UK, through 9 games, against a generally tougher schedule to date. That is why Vegas has it at 13 1/2 points right now. That is why the line has climbed a little since the open instead of tighten.

    Vegas has posted lines for all 9 of those games. On 4 occasions, UK has beaten the line, and 4 fell short of the line. The 9th game, UK hit the line on the money. The 4 times better than the line were: CMU +6; LSU +8; JSU +16 1/2; and Mississippi +18. The 4 times UK was worse than the line were: WKU -13 1/2; Louisville -10; Florida -23; and USC -49 1/2. Mississippi State was on the money: MSU 0

    While the 4-4-1 ATS outcome is what Vegas expects, the amount of the variances on either side in the 4 and 4 games is unusual to my experience. This UK team has either failed by a large margin, or prevailed by a wide margin. Will that season long trend continue tomorrow? Will UK lose by 23 or more points [-10 or more] or lose a close one [+6 to 8] or win a close one [+16 to +18].

    I believe this is the pivotal game for this UK team, and if it can get out of Nashville with a win, then I think this team has shown a resilency I never imagined possible following the USC game. However, if it gets smacked around, and loses by 23+ points, then the season is over, and all the questions that nagged this coaching staff as recently as 2 weeks ago surge back to the forefront.

    Enjoy the game, and let's all hope that the Cats get out of Nashville with a W today because that will set up the Tennessee game as perhaps the most important game of the Joker Philips coaching tenure.

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  • When Vandy and UK play its all about who can exorcise the demon that has been in both programs for years. This game usually means nothing to Vandy but this year it is different. New coach, better recruits, and a new winning attitude.

    This will be a hard game for UK to win straight up but 13.5 points appear to be way out of line.

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  • Like I said Prof, I agree with the numbers you put up, and would completely agree IF Newton was still starting. But the one thing you cannot debate (and stats cannot show) is the difference in body language this team has shown since Max became starter. I think they now truly believe in each other. Before Smith became starter there were serious issues in the locker room. I wish I could comment more, but there was some real problems among players and they revolved around Newton. All I can say is that is that there were off the field issues among players and now those issues are gone. That IMO is the biggest difference now and going forward.

    As for the UT game, win or lose today, I belive that game will be the most important of Jokers young HCing career.
    IMO, even if we lose today anf against UGA, to beat UT and end the streak would be massive for Joker.

    But I do know we can agree on this ...
    We love our Cats and, we need this win, and we will be cheering our asses off!

    GO CATS GO!!!

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  • mrhotdice said... (original post)

    When Vandy and UK play its all about who can exorcise the demon that has been in both programs for years. This game usually means nothing to Vandy but this year it is different. New coach, better recruits, and a new winning attitude.

    This will be a hard game for UK to win straight up but 13.5 points appear to be way out of line.

    Way out of line. This Vandy team IMO is way too undisciplined and gives up far too many penalties to hold a lead that big against any SEC school.

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  • tommy said... (original post)

    Like I said Prof, I agree with the numbers you put up, and would completely agree IF Newton was still starting. But the one thing you cannot debate (and stats cannot show) is the difference in body language this team has shown since Max became starter. I think they now truly believe in each other. Before Smith became starter there were serious issues in the locker room. I wish I could comment more, but there was some real problems among players and they revolved around Newton. All I can say is that is that there were off the field issues among players and now those issues are gone. That IMO is the biggest difference now and going forward.

    As for the UT game, win or lose today, I belive that game will be the most important of Jokers young HCing career. IMO, even if we lose today anf against UGA, to beat UT and end the streak would be massive for Joker.

    But I do know we can agree on this ... We love our Cats and, we need this win, and we will be cheering our asses off!

    GO CATS GO!!!

    We agree!!!!!

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  • TheProfessor said... (original post)

    We agree!!!!!

    Problem is that my "hope" and $0.50 won't buy a cup of coffee, and won't put any points on the board for this UK football team.

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  • dramsey79 said... (original post)

    bangheadWell, they covered.

    They even covered my 23 points, that became the butt of jokes in the prediction thread earlier this week

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  • nbtoppers2 said... (original post)

    take kentucky and the over

    Good call on the over. You knew Minter's new look D would come through, didn't you?