The House of Blue

UL's offense definitely has more seniors, mostly at OL. However, their defense is pretty much all young kids that Strong has brought in.

We should revisit this topic when the official depth charts come out the week of the Govenor's Cup.

Agreed. If our DL can shut down their run and get pressure on Bridgwater, UK can and should win the game . Especially with UK's advantage in experience.

Advantage in experience? Where are you getting this? first you said the teams are almost identical in terms of experience... Now you say UK has an experience advantage?

If anything, UofL has more experience. They return more starters, they have more seniors and juniors in their two deep...

UK will have first time starters at 3/5 o-line positions, a first time starter at tight end. Two first time starters at WR, A QB who only started 4 games last year year. Running back should have some experience. But overall, UK has much less experience on offense than UOFL does.

On Defense, UK does have experience on the d-line, but they have virtually no starting expereince at linebacker or at corner. They do have some experience at safety.

Not sure what you're looking at but it isn't close to accurate in terms of UK's "experience". UofL has more experience. But in my opinion experience is a bit overrated especially when you replace experience with more talent as I believe we are doing at a couple of o-line spots, our wr spots and at qb. I also think our corners may be more talented but obviously not nearly as experienced.

But to say UK is more "experienced" is not even close to accurate.

Yes, UL has a lot of starters returning, but they're mostly kids that have never redshirted and Strong threw into the starting lineup from Day 1. They're still very, very young. Only 2 seniors on UL's 2 deep depth chart on defense.

UK has a lot of "experience" returning. UK's guys are kids that have been in the program for a while and know the system. Lets take a look.

QB- Maxwell Smith- the most inexperienced guy on offense, but has had pretty much the same ammount of time in the program as Teddy Bridgwater. Both QB's became starters last year as a result of injuries. Both finished the Fall as starters and both got all of the reps in Spring Practice.

RB- assuming Clemons is out, UK has 2 very experienced RBs. They return 2 guys that have been starters in Coshik Williams and Raymond Sanders. Coshik is a SR and Sanders a JR. Lots of experienc there.

WR- UK will start at a 4 yr starter in Larod King. They will also probably start another kid that's been in the program for 4 years in EJ Fields. Fields killed UL last year, so we know he's capable of having a big impact on this game.

TE- T Robinson will likely start. If he does, this will be his 3rd year as a starter in this offense. Senior Anthony Kendrick will also get snaps along with the inexperienced Shields.

OL- Warford and Smith are basically 4 year starters and projected as NFL draft picks. Kevin Mitchell is in his 4th year of the program and has been the primary back up at both guard and tackle for the last 2 years. Darrien MIller will return to start for his second year in a row. He was a standout last year. The only "newbie" will be Zac West. Plenty of "experience" overall in this group.

Defense

Wow, talk about experience up front.

DL- UK's dline will be one of the most experienced in the SEC. Cobble (SR) and Rumph (JR) both return as starters. 4th year player and former starter Taylor Wyndham returns as a key back up. Senior Collins Ukwu also returns as a previous starter. Most BCS teams would kill to return a dline with this much experience. 3 Srs and 1 Jr in the front 4. Wow!

LB- not as much experience, unfortunately. Linebacker Avery Williamson returns for his 3rd season. He split time with Sneed last year and ultimately started getting more snaps than Sneed over the last 4 games. Minter recently said Williamson is essentially a returning starter. JR Malcom McDuffin will be a first time starter, but he's been in the program for 3 yrs and has been Trevathen's primary backup. Alvin Dupree is young, but he will be starting for the 2nd year in a row. Not bad.

CB- this is the weak spot as far as depth goes. Now, Cartier Rice (SR) has played a ton at UK over the years, but mostly as the nickle. He will line up as the full time starter this season. Eric Dixon is the only other CB returning with previous experience. Yikes.

Safety- Neloms is a 3 or 4 year starter and the heart and soul of the secondary. He made big plays against everybody. Mikey Benton will return to start for his second season in a row., though Ashley Lowry is breathing down his neck.

All in all, UK has a lot more experience coming back than people are aware of. Most of these kids have had the advantage of redshirting as well.

Compared to UL's group of kids that have been thrown to the wolves right out of highschool, UK definitely has an "experience" advantage IMO.

Yes, because our off-season conditioning and weight training has RESHAPED our team plus U of L is overlooking us and believes they will win by 3 touchdowns rather than have a close game...I predict their defensive players will try to "overplay" to get a spectacular play and, thus, be susceptible to misdirection. The pressure of this game is on them!

Yup, most of UK's starters have now had multiple years with Rock Oliver. This is the season we'll probably start seeing the dividends.

I think the tight end for u of L is the key to this game. He is Bridgewater's safety value and is quite good. Nice route runner and has good hands. Our defense will need to keep him in check to win.

Thought I'd lend a hand in tidying-up a few typos/oversights, Not that they'll change the viewpoint you are putting forward, but I do think the below are some valid clarifications:

On the D-side of the ball:

-Cobble is not a Sr., but a Jr who has one year of game experience.
-McDuffen is not a Jr., but a rsSo. with very little game experience. He may have been DT's primary backup last year, but DT didn't come off the field much
-It's a stretch and a little misleading to say Dupree is starting for the 2nd year in a row. Stated that way makes you think is was on the field as a starter for a full year for most of the snaps. He wasn't...far from it.
-Rumph came in out-of-shape and his freshman year was pretty much a year of conditioning. He does have the added benefit of maturity in years/age.
-Benton, a gritty, hard-working walk-on (former?), is a Sr. with pretty much one year of significant game experience and another year prior to that of spot/situational experience.

On offense:
-Kendrick is a Jr., not a Sr. and has played sparingly thus far.
-Due to injuries, Sanders has not been able to fully participate in games during his two years.
-C. Williams saw pretty much his first significant game action last year.
-Maybe Mitchell can be called a primary backup, but with Lanefski and Murphy ahead of him as the primary backups over the past two years, he really hasn't had that much game experience.
-Woods may be a Sr, but my recollection is that he has even less game experience than Mitchell, which means close to nil.
-Yeah, E J Fields has been in the program for awhile, but due to various injuries he has less than one year's game experience.
-I don't recall T. Robinson was being the predominant starter his Fr year, but he certainly has significant game experience.

I think KY's best chance is to go against what Minter typically wants to do, which is bring pressure from different areas to confuse the offense.

In this case, I think making a young QB in Bridgewater beat you with his arm rather than his legs when the pocket breaks down is the key. I am afraid to much pressure other than the front four/three will cause running lanes in which we all know KY had been horrid over the years in containing a dual threat QB. I think I would like my chances keeping everything in front of the defense while making Louisville have to sustain 8+ plus play drives with TB possibly prone to mistakes as he is still rounding out as a quarterback. Using a variation of combo coverages in the back seven could cause enough confusion against a talented, yet still young Louisville passing attack.

You're welcome....I do remember the Rivals' listing containing some mis-classifications.

I don't disagree with the main theme of your viewpoint as offered above.....it's time to get-it-on and I can hardly wait.

Lastly, I'd love to have UK +13, as I also agree that other than the home field advantage, this game looks to be evenly matched to me.

Hoptown...you are wrong on the Bridgewater timeline...Bridgewater didnt start 11 games...he didnt take every snap from the middle of the 1st quarter in game two until the end of the season either.

Smith got 15 bowl practices in the year before last.

I think both teams are going to be similarly young across the board, there is no doubt in my mind that the most talent is in the freshman and sophomore classes for both teams.

That said, I think this game will be decided by confidence and over-confidence. UL has been talking smack, CS is putting UK stickers in the urinals for motivation, for a team that lost to two non BCS programs last season they seem awfully confident.

OTOH UK got of to a wretched start last season, endured embarrassment and injuries. Yet they finished the season beating a long-time rival on the strength of their defense and an all but forgotten WR turned QB. That should help the team's confidence but confidence is a fragile thing for a young team. UK needs to get off to a good start, that above all else could be the deciding factor.

If I'm Kentucky: I rely on my big, stout DL to stop the run and I bring the heat by blitzing Bridgewater at every chance. Our secondary is questionable and I try to protect them with a zone coverage and trying to bring as much pressure as possible. On offense I use our big RBs to wear down their DL. I would also try to spread them out by using 4 receiver sets and getting my play-makers in open space.

If I'm Louisville I try to hit the big play early, no need to run into the teeth of UK's defense when you can put them on their heels early on. Bridewater is mobile so I take a page out of UK's gameplan against UT and roll Bridgewater out of the pocket (and away from that big Dline) and give him the option to run or pass. On defense I stack the box and play press coverage on the WRs. I'd take away the run game early and make the QB and WRs prove they can hit something more than 5-10 yards. Play for field position and make UK drive it.

In the end I give a slight edge to UK. Last year we didn't have enough guys that could make a play. This year I believe we have several guys that can take a hand-off or catch a pass and make a defender miss or break a tackle. That is vital to sustaining drives. On defense I really like our DL and I think they will make a big difference, moreso we have depth that isn't a huge drop-off. I know our secondary may be a weakness but between disguising our coverage and bringing pressure (which I think Minter will be able to do more of this season) I think we can off-set our deficiencies in the secondary for the most part.