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rgunslinger said...
I think both teams are going to be similarly young across the board, there is no doubt in my mind that the most talent is in the freshman and sophomore classes for both teams.
That said, I think this game will be decided by confidence and over-confidence. UL has been talking smack, CS is putting UK stickers in the urinals for motivation, for a team that lost to two non BCS programs last season they seem awfully confident.
OTOH UK got of to a wretched start last season, endured embarrassment and injuries. Yet they finished the season beating a long-time rival on the strength of their defense and an all but forgotten WR turned QB. That should help the team's confidence but confidence is a fragile thing for a young team. UK needs to get off to a good start, that above all else could be the deciding factor.
If I'm Kentucky: I rely on my big, stout DL to stop the run and I bring the heat by blitzing Bridgewater at every chance. Our secondary is questionable and I try to protect them with a zone coverage and trying to bring as much pressure as possible. On offense I use our big RBs to wear down their DL. I would also try to spread them out by using 4 receiver sets and getting my play-makers in open space.
If I'm Louisville I try to hit the big play early, no need to run into the teeth of UK's defense when you can put them on their heels early on. Bridewater is mobile so I take a page out of UK's gameplan against UT and roll Bridgewater out of the pocket (and away from that big Dline) and give him the option to run or pass. On defense I stack the box and play press coverage on the WRs. I'd take away the run game early and make the QB and WRs prove they can hit something more than 5-10 yards. Play for field position and make UK drive it.
In the end I give a slight edge to UK. Last year we didn't have enough guys that could make a play. This year I believe we have several guys that can take a hand-off or catch a pass and make a defender miss or break a tackle. That is vital to sustaining drives. On defense I really like our DL and I think they will make a big difference, moreso we have depth that isn't a huge drop-off. I know our secondary may be a weakness but between disguising our coverage and bringing pressure (which I think Minter will be able to do more of this season) I think we can off-set our deficiencies in the secondary for the most part.
MinterWonderlnd
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footballcat65
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ShockeyFork said...
Did he really get to fully participate in 15 days of practice before the bowl game against Pitt? My hunch is that you might want to run that one through a "fact-checker" for material accuracy.
"Kentucky Football needs to be and will be a championship contender in the SEC."~Mitch Barnhart 11/4/12
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shepp2700 said...
I think Kentucky wins in a close ballgame, that is not the prettiest of offensive performances ever displayed on either side of the ball. I just like our defense this year, especially against an opponent like Louisville. I do not expect us to shut down every team on the schedule, but I do like the way we match up with Louisville from what I have seen so far. I expect Kentucky to put some pressure on Bridgewater to complete a good percentage of passes by taking away the Cardinal running game early, and as a result, I expect him to make some early mistakes. As a result, I think UL will play tight the entire game, and UK will do enough offensively to win the game. I expect the kicking game to play a huge role in this game, as I think the teams are pretty evenly matched.
Go Cats!!
UK 19 UL 13
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footballcat65
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PAXCAT said...
I agree with Minter, Bridgewater cut his teeth in the Big East with better skill players last year. His numbers appear better but is he really that much more talented? Meanwhile, Smith was getting his brains knocked in against the SEC with no help. Jury still way out on good Bridgewater is/will be.
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rgunslinger ●
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rgunslinger said...
Dude Max enrolled early for the 2011 season. He may not have fully participated but he did attend those practices.
As far as comparing Smith's and Bridgewaters game experience, Maxwell played in 8 games and had around 150 pass attempts, Bridgewater played in 11 games and had 296 pass attempts. So while the number of games are fairly equal Bridgewater has almost double the pass attempts.
This post was edited by tWhit on 8/1/2012 at 7:55 PM
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ShockeyFork said...
Actually, and it's silly for me to raise and even sillier that I remember these kinds of things, but Max was not with us for all of the pre-bowl game practices at the end of 2010. I wasn't even gonna say anything.....but then I thought, why would someone even bring up those practices to support an argument in the first place? Even during those 5 days that Max was at practice, Morgan and Moss were getting the work; Max hardly did much other than throw the ball around.....
Here's a quote from Coach Phillips from before last season:
"We're really excited about what we saw in the five (pre-bowl) practices with Max Smith, and that will continue to be a competition at that position with Max Smith pushing Morgan," Phillips said.
And then this.....
The Kentucky coach spoke highly about the play of the younger Wildcats in the first spring practice, including freshman quarterback Maxwell Smith. Smith, a native of Van Nuys, Calif., signed with the Wildcats in 2010 before greyshirting and then joining the Kentucky for five practices before the BBVA Compass Bowl.
"I was pleased with him," Phillips said. "The guy has only been here five practices for the bowl game and has been here half a semester, so a month and a half. I was pleased with him how much he knew. He has been here and got around some of our players and he is the type of guy that jumps in and takes charge."
So 5 practices for Max pre-BBVA Compass Bowl, not 15...I know, silly facts.
"Kentucky Football needs to be and will be a championship contender in the SEC."~Mitch Barnhart 11/4/12
rgunslinger ●
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ShockeyFork said...
I know, I know...I said it was silly...said I wasn't gonna even say anything. Hell, I can't even remember which poster brought it up in the first place...seems like someone was trying to say that Smith had as much or more experience than Bridgewater and used the "15" pre-bowl game practices as ammunition, lol. Oh well......I'm just ready to get the season started and I'm ready to....
Beat the snot out of those dirty birds!!!
"Kentucky Football needs to be and will be a championship contender in the SEC."~Mitch Barnhart 11/4/12
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Villefan1 said...
While the final recruiting rankings have been similar between the 2 schools, I feel like UL has gotten more kids with better offers. The rankings don't take that into account. Kids like Mount, Pryor, John Miller, Dubose, Butler, Andrew Johnson, Mauldin.......were 3 star kids offered by traditional power schools. To me, that's different than a 3 star kid recruited by Toledo and Ohio.
Add kids like Brigewater, Eli Rogers, Jamon Brown.........and I think UL just has more NFL-type players than UK does and that is what wins these type of games IMO.
This post was edited by JDHLaw11 on 8/2/2012 at 8:24 PM
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Do You think UK will beat UofL? Please explain why or why not