The House of Blue

Ford's Big Board

2. Nerlens Noel
12. Alex Poythress
13. Willie Cauley-Stein
19. Archie Goodwin

I hope for Cauley-Stein, Poythress, and Goodwin back, in that order. Not a knock on anyone in particular just with who we will most likely need the most next year mixed with the incoming talent.

If anybody is guaranteed to go, it's him. He can't have another big injury before he's drafted.

Yep, and Nerlens is a smart cat. He also has the option of continuing school while playing in the NBA. I'd say it's a foregone conclusion he's gone, a likelihood all the other freshmen are gone, and I think people will be surprised with what Wiltjer and Harrow decide to do.

I'll truly be surprised if Wiltjer leaves in any form. The only reason his leaving wouldn't surprise me if his bud Polson calls it quits early. Wiltjer may not play as much next year, but the things he is good at will be accented next year with the players around him.

Forget about any current freshman coming back and focus on the incoming class. If Wiltjer comes back he can come in and play with Harrisons^2, Young, Lee, and/Johnson. The perimeter will be wide open on pick and roles or when one of the three perimeter players drive. He could be looking at the very least six wide open threes a game.

Add anyone to the post and you could work a nasty high-low post game with him and Randle/WCS/Lee/Johnson/Wiggins. I just don't see Kyle heading elsewhere. Good things happen when you play for Cal as a freshman and beyond. Look at Miller, Liggins, Harrelson, etc. Cal hasn't completely figured Wiltjer out yet and that isn't all either of their faults.

I think Wiltjer's strengths could be utilized much more effectively next season than these last two.

I think it was Dickie V. Who said on Saturdays broadcast that its not about where you are drafted but the second contract to think of. If you are in the D league or riding the bench your not going to make the money you could by sticking around.

That said I don't see any freshman on this team playing for Cal next year. I think they all should but I will be surprised if any are

The problem for guys like Goodwin and Poythress is not only a consideration of competing for playing time on the team next year. It is also a problem of a much deeper draft as compared to the draft this year. There are going to be some guys with serious question marks taken in the lottery, let alone the first round as a whole. If either of those guys get a guarantee (as much of one as you are going to get from a team) that they will go anywhere in the fist round they should jump on it.

That said, I would love to see them return and let Cal try to accomplish something that he alluded to in talking about the '96 team -- getting all of his talented players to accept playing 20 minutes a game for the good of the team. For the first time he could really play pressure defense and basically run two separate starting fives. Practices would be tougher than almost any game they would play. If he could get them all to buy in AND he could effectively manage the rotations (we have seen how hard it is for Cal to even rotate one player in that is not in his top 7 -- i.e., Hood) then that team could be that elusive undefeated national champion that many think will never happen again.

The thing people rarely talk about when mentioning guys should come back is how coming back can actually accentuate their flaws even more and drop their stock. If, say, you're Alex Poythress and the knock on you is consistent effort and energy, and ball-handling issues, yet you're still a lottery or top 20 pick what happens if you come back and those areas don't improve? Then scouts have even more time to pick your game apart and you drop even further, especially in what will be a deeper draft. By leaving after one year those question marks remain but at least you're getting drafted higher and earning good money.

Its very hard for me to make a prediction one way or the other on any of the guys sans Noel. Just to many factors although I will say that maybe the most important factor is the fact that this draft is historically weak. Its almost sad that that could end up being a huge factor but it has to be. Long term it shouldn't make any difference whether the draft is weak or strong. But in the short term, money wise, and perception wise it makes a big difference.