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ESPN's Chad Ford on UK's freshmen

  • There's more to making it in the NBA than being a lottery pick. Bill Simmons often talks about how once a team reaches late lottery you are just hoping to get a good rotation guy. Sure you will get paid for 4 years but if you aren't ready you will be passed over for minutes, face an uphill climb to improve because you won't be playing meaningful basketball, and be old news before you know it. If a team takes a gamble on you becuase of your potential that means you are expendable, hence the gamble. WCS, Poythress, and Goodwin may all be first round picks but that doesn't mean they are ready to start playing professionaly. There is a difference. Xavier Henry, Tobias Harris, Josh Shelby, Daniel Orton, Marquis Teague, these are recent guys that projected well as pros yet none of them plays meaningful minutes nor looks to do so in the immediate future. They got in the NBA before they were ready to make any kind of impact and now it's an uphill climb for them. My philosophy is these kids should do whatever they and their families want, but I think when all you are looking at is your draft # you are missing the big picture of the NBA. If they are only concerned with that one contract and believe they can make it in the NBA then I hope it works out well for them. If they want a 10-15 year NBA career, actually get minutes in the league (which I think fan underrate when thinking about kids going pro), and have hopes of contributing at a championship level they'll have a better chance if they are better rounded players when they get there. Of course that's no guarantee you'll make it, NBA is a tough place where lots of talented people flunk out, but it's all about giving yourself the best chance.

    Shamisoshea23

  • truecatfan4life said...

    I think his point was if your not ready and make the jump and your not in the lottery, you might not get a lot of playing time. If you don't get time to prove yourself the second contract is not going to come or be less than you make if you we're ready and played early and often to prove yourself.

    Even then in the NBA there are no restrictions on how often you can practice and you don't have to go to school. So you can devote your entire life to perfecting your game. Playing time helps but is not a requirement to getting better in the league for the reasons I just mentioned. Plus there is the D League and many teams are using the D League route more effectively than they used to. Anymore guys like the 3 we've got if they do come back it will only be because they enjoy the college life and want to soak that up for another year. WCS is a little different though because of his size and upside. He could play himself into the top 5 easily next year vs. late lotto this year. Pretty big difference especially like I said if you enjoy the college life and want to hang on to it for just a little longer. Ask the guys that went pro after a year. Almost all of them wish they would have stayed. The team concept in college is much different than in the NBA where guys are playing for contracts and to feed their families. Just a much different atmosphere.

    tWhit

  • Even as good as Noel is and as high as he's projected, he could go pro and find the majority of his 1st 2-3 years in the D-league.. I haven't heard a single scout or draft expert say anyone in this draft is a sure bet, unlike Labron, Koby, Garnett, etc that you just knew were going to be special.. Honestly, I haven't heard talk of anyone like the talk was of Anthony Davis last year. If I didn't know either guy from Adam and I saw WCS and Noel enter a gym and just watched them run, jump, shoot, ect, I'd be hard pressed not to think WCS was the better of the 2.. IMO, Noel is more in the mold of a Keith Lee, Pervis Ellison type.. Probably closer to 6'9 than 7'0 if you measured from the top of his head and not his hair. Not real physically imposing and still a work in progress on the offensive end.. I see WCS more in the mold of Hakeem Olajuwan, Patrick Ewing type.. A legit athletic 7'0 footer that can run the floor, handle the ball, solid passer, high energy, etc.. While I think Noel is further along in his development and will have a nice career, I think WCS has a bigger upside in the long term..

    bluecatntn

  • Noel has elite level quickness though. The likes that have never been seen before. Both off the floor and laterally for a big man. He moves like a small forward. Yet after a few years bulking up(which this injury might be a good thing for) he has the length and athleticism to guard any big in the league so he's gonna create matchup problems for bigs that just won't be able to stay with him. Especially if he's able to work on his ball handling he can take other bigs off the dribble. And don't say well you won't have to guard him out there. Actually you will because if you don't all he'll have to do is set a pick and boom there is a wide open shot for a guard. Lets also not forget Noel has something special about him when it comes to working hard and playing hard. It was easy to tell from the very beginning that he's a special kid. He's tough and has a will to win that you don't find all that often. Let us also not forget that the league is devoid of excellent Centers. He'll not doubt be a starter in the league within 3 years IMO.

    tWhit

  • tWhit said...

    Noel has elite level quickness though. The likes that have never been seen before. Both off the floor and laterally for a big man. He moves like a small forward. Yet after a few years bulking up(which this injury might be a good thing for) he has the length and athleticism to guard any big in the league so he's gonna create matchup problems for bigs that just won't be able to stay with him. Especially if he's able to work on his ball handling he can take other bigs off the dribble. And don't say well you won't have to guard him out there. Actually you will because if you don't all he'll have to do is set a pick and boom there is a wide open shot for a guard. Lets also not forget Noel has something special about him when it comes to working hard and playing hard. It was easy to tell from the very beginning that he's a special kid. He's tough and has a will to win that you don't find all that often. Let us also not forget that the league is devoid of excellent Centers. He'll not doubt be a starter in the league within 3 years IMO.

    The only thing about the bulking up question with Noel is how much he can actually do so. He doesn't have the broad shoulders Davis had that suggest he can really fill out a great deal. It'll be interesting to see what his body looks like in 3-4 years. You can still be strong without being broad but it's more of a challenge.

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    Matt May

  • Lets say he doesn't bulk up and doesn't end up being a start in the league. At the very very least he'd be incredible role player who's skill is as a hustle player and block shot artist. He could survive in the league for 15 years just off that skill set alone. And be coveted by many teams.

    tWhit

  • I think it is ludicrous to think that 4 players off of a UK team that probally isnt going to even make the NCAA tourny is going to be drafted in the first round of the NBA draft. Are the NBA GMs really that stupid?

    Cll80

  • Cll80 said...

    I think it is ludicrous to think that 4 players off of a UK team that probally isnt going to even make the NCAA tourny is going to be drafted in the first round of the NBA draft. Are the NBA GMs really that stupid?

    It's about potential and all the guys we're talking about have loads of potential. This year's draft is historically weak too. All that adds up to teams making massive reaches.

    hoptownukfan

  • Matt May said...

    The only thing about the bulking up question with Noel is how much he can actually do so. He doesn't have the broad shoulders Davis had that suggest he can really fill out a great deal. It'll be interesting to see what his body looks like in 3-4 years. You can still be strong without being broad but it's more of a challenge.

    I remember when Walter McCarty was here, they tried to get him to get bigger. They tried everything, but, he just couldn't bulk up, or even gain weight.

    This post was edited by ukblueforever on 3/4/2013 at 1:57 PM

    ukblueforever

  • hoptownukfan said...

    It's about potential and all the guys we're talking about have loads of potential. This year's draft is historically weak too. All that adds up to teams making massive reaches.

    Who says they have potential, except for Noel? None of the other guys, except, maybe for WCS. The other guys are so inconsistent you can't judge if there's potential there, or not. You can't say a player has potential because he has a good game every now and then. We have a couple of guys whose stats are elevated because of what they did early in the season against weak teams and maybe a good game or 2 since then. I still think a lot of people are saying they have potential because of their high school reputation. Well, they're not in high school anymore and the competition gets better all the time. I think we have some guys that have just been overrated when ti comes to potential. Not saying I'm right, just my opinion.
    Even if we have some guys come back, I'm not sure they'll get better. Their attitude will have to change first.

    ukblueforever

  • ukblueforever said...

    Who says they have potential, except for Noel? None of the other guys, except, maybe for WCS. The other guys are so inconsistent you can't judge if there's potential there, or not. You can't say a player has potential because he has a good game every now and then. We have a couple of guys whose stats are elevated because of what they did early in the season against weak teams and maybe a good game or 2 since then. I still think a lot of people are saying they have potential because of their high school reputation. Well, they're not in high school anymore and the competition gets better all the time. I think we have some guys that have just been overrated when ti comes to potential. Not saying I'm right, just my opinion.
    Even if we have some guys come back, I'm not sure they'll get better. Their attitude will have to change first.

    If you can see the potential or Goodwin and poythress your blind...they may not be playing well now but they are 18 years old still 8-9 years away from there prime...If Goodwin can develop a 3 point shot in the nba he will be a stud...guy stand 5 feet away from him any time he's at the 3 point line so he cant blow by them...he has excellent speed and is a pretty decent rebounder for a guy his size...the nba is so much more open which suits goodwins skills...poythress is also a huge potential guy...he's 6'7 with a frame to add a bunch of muscle and shoots 43 percent from 3...how is that not potential...he still might grow an inch or 2...and the spacing in the nba will also help him...and u have to remember the defenses won't be designed to stop them anymore cause they won't be the most talented on the team

    This post was edited by esupp24 on 3/4/2013 at 2:12 PM

    esupp24

  • esupp24 said...

    If you can see the potential or Goodwin and poythress your blind...they may not be playing well now but they are 18 years old still 8-9 years away from there prime...If Goodwin can develop a 3 point shot in the nba he will be a stud...guy stand 5 feet away from him any time he's at the 3 point line so he cant blow by them...he has excellent speed and is a pretty decent rebounder for a guy his size...the nba is so much more open which suits goodwins skills...poythress is also a huge potential guy...he's 6'7 with a frame to add a bunch of muscle and shoots 43 percent from 3...how is that not potential...he still might grow an inch or 2...and the spacing in the nba will also help him...and u have to remember the defenses won't be designed to stop them anymore cause they won't be the most talented on the team

    I'm not saying this to be a jerk, but it's pretty obvious Ukblueforever doesn't understand the definition of "potential"

    hoptownukfan

  • Cll80 said...

    I think it is ludicrous to think that 4 players off of a UK team that probally isnt going to even make the NCAA tourny is going to be drafted in the first round of the NBA draft. Are the NBA GMs really that stupid?

    Yeah ... you're right ... they're stupid and don't know what they're doing. That's why the teams pay them $1.5M a year ...

    headslap

    WildcatKNH :: my NCAA Resource Center > www.knhayes.com/NCAA

    wildcatknh

  • Shamisoshea23 said...

    There's more to making it in the NBA than being a lottery pick. Bill Simmons often talks about how once a team reaches late lottery you are just hoping to get a good rotation guy. Sure you will get paid for 4 years but if you aren't ready you will be passed over for minutes, face an uphill climb to improve because you won't be playing meaningful basketball, and be old news before you know it. If a team takes a gamble on you becuase of your potential that means you are expendable, hence the gamble. WCS, Poythress, and Goodwin may all be first round picks but that doesn't mean they are ready to start playing professionaly. There is a difference. Xavier Henry, Tobias Harris, Josh Shelby, Daniel Orton, Marquis Teague, these are recent guys that projected well as pros yet none of them plays meaningful minutes nor looks to do so in the immediate future. They got in the NBA before they were ready to make any kind of impact and now it's an uphill climb for them. My philosophy is these kids should do whatever they and their families want, but I think when all you are looking at is your draft # you are missing the big picture of the NBA. If they are only concerned with that one contract and believe they can make it in the NBA then I hope it works out well for them. If they want a 10-15 year NBA career, actually get minutes in the league (which I think fan underrate when thinking about kids going pro), and have hopes of contributing at a championship level they'll have a better chance if they are better rounded players when they get there. Of course that's no guarantee you'll make it, NBA is a tough place where lots of talented people flunk out, but it's all about giving yourself the best chance.

    Ultimately, it is a gamble either way for most of these kids. People can talk about unlimited practice time in the NBA but who are going to practice against during that "unlimited" time. Once teams get into the season they may have one or two real practices a week (with games and travel). The biggest thing about staying in college longer is developing the confidence necessary to believe that you belong on the court once you get to the league. And by confidence, I'm not talking about an irrational belief in one's ability but an honest understanding of what you are capable of and knowing that you will make those plays more often than not.

    The risk with staying in college is that they may never develop into an NBA player and, at best, make a living playing basketball over seas somewhere. Of course, they will have their degree meaning that their free education can set them up for success in an entirely different career as well. BUT, if an NBA team is going to guarantee them money while their potential is still just that -- potential -- it would be pretty hard for me to find fault with them for going after that money.

    ukcat15

  • ukcat15 said...

    Ultimately, it is a gamble either way for most of these kids. People can talk about unlimited practice time in the NBA but who are going to practice against during that "unlimited" time. Once teams get into the season they may have one or two real practices a week (with games and travel). The biggest thing about staying in college longer is developing the confidence necessary to believe that you belong on the court once you get to the league. And by confidence, I'm not talking about an irrational belief in one's ability but an honest understanding of what you are capable of and knowing that you will make those plays more often than not.

    The risk with staying in college is that they may never develop into an NBA player and, at best, make a living playing basketball over seas somewhere. Of course, they will have their degree meaning that their free education can set them up for success in an entirely different career as well. BUT, if an NBA team is going to guarantee them money while their potential is still just that -- potential -- it would be pretty hard for me to find fault with them for going after that money.

    While they may not have team practices, guys near the end of the bench do get unlimited one on one time and individual workouts with the coaching staffs. In fact, some require it.

    hoptownukfan