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Fearless Forecast: Upset special

  • http://kentucky.247sports.com/Article/CatsPauses-Fearless-Forecast-series-looks-at-2012-season-86475

    CatsPause.com's analysts give their opinions in an eight-part 'FEARLESS FORECAST' feature. Today's topic: What game is a potential upset special for the 2012 season?

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    Follow me on Twitter: '@TCPMattMay'

    Matt May

  • I don't really see a strong upset contender on this schedule but if I had to pick one I would go with Georgia. Georgia is coming off of what is always a bitter hard fought rivalry game against South Carolina and are set for a let down situation, especially if the Dawgs pull out the win.

    "Ignorance is constricted awareness" - Deepak Chopra

    Deeeefense

  • Louisville, even though I personally don't see it as much of an upset. The Cards are just an average football team.

    To me the only possible TRUE upsets on our schedule are: at Florida, USCjr, Georgia, and at Arkansas. Out of those teams the most likely to me is Georgia at home.

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    Big Sarge

  • I consider USC an Upset special expecially if Lattimore doesnt come back 100% from his ACL surgery. I would say UofL but I wouldnt consider that an upset.

    Cll80

  • I'll give you 3...UofL, FLA & ARK.

    catcard202

  • Big Sarge said...

    Louisville, even though I personally don't see it as much of an upset. The Cards are just an average football team.

    To me the only possible TRUE upsets on our schedule are: at Florida, USCjr, Georgia, and at Arkansas. Out of those teams the most likely to me is Georgia at home.

    I agree totally. UofL is grossly overrated, IMO, and should not be more than a 3-4 point favorite. Last year they were 7-5, playing in the Big East. We were 5-7, playing in the SEC. Those are equivalent records. They beat us by a touchdown when we dropped a pass inside the 10 yard line in the last minute. Why they should be more than 3-4 point favorites is beyond me. (Now, if they beat us by 14, it will show what I know!)

    old jim

  • I'd have to go with UL as the most likely, but, I think UF is prime for the pickin' this year.. They have the overall talent advantage, but, they have questions at QB and RB and I'm still not sold on Muschamp to lead that program.. I think Ga has had enough tough games with us in the past few yrs not to overlook us and Spurrier just seems to have our number.. Miss St at home, wouldn't be much of an upset, imo..

    bluecatntn

  • How did UK get MSU in Lexington in back-to-back years? Anyway, I am going to go with Arkansas. I don't know why, but the Cats always seem to play the Razorbacks well when they aren't expected to win.

    This post was edited by KSt on 8/21/2012 at 10:30 AM

    KSt

  • KSt said...

    How did we get MSU in Lexington in back-to-back years?

    When the league added Missouri and Texas A&M it reshuffled the permanent opponents and rotation schedule, which caused State to come back to Lexington again this season.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Matt May on 8/21/2012 at 10:59 AM

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    Follow me on Twitter: '@TCPMattMay'

    Matt May

  • I don't consider UK beating UL an upset either. I'll take UK beating Georgia. For some reason UK always plays the Dawgs tuff!

    footballcat65

  • Cll80 said...

    I consider USC an Upset special expecially if Lattimore doesnt come back 100% from his ACL surgery. I would say UofL but I wouldnt consider that an upset.

    Louisville is #25 and about a two touchdown favorite. Beating Louisville WOULD be an upset. Geez.....

    That being said, I think if this is there is ever a year to beat Florida it is this year as they are expected to be down....which has me worried about a post season coaching change but that's another topic for another day.

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    Alanin502

  • Remember UL lost to FIU and Marshall last year. There is no way they should be a 14 point favorite. Maybe 5-6 points. I think that UL will have trouble with our DL especially with their OL, that is their weakness on offense. We have to be aggressive with our blitzing and picking the right times to do so.

    jehamm0

  • Alanin502 said...

    Louisville is #25 and about a two touchdown favorite. Beating Louisville WOULD be an upset. Geez.....

    That being said, I think if this is there is ever a year to beat Florida it is this year as they are expected to be down....which has me worried about a post season coaching change but that's another topic for another day.

    I get what you're saying but rankings are so pointless this time of year. No one has seen anyone play. Sure, it's pretty obvious to see teams in the Top 10 are going to be really good but once you start getting toward the back end of the Top 25 it's all guess work. No one really knows how good those teams are going to be. Some end up better. Some flop. I've come around to the thinking that there shouldn't be any rankings until October.

    Given that 4 of the last 5 meetings between Kentucky and Louisville have been decided by a TD or less, and it's a rivalry game, I'm just not sure that the programs are really all that far apart or it's an upset either way.

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    Matt May

  • jehamm0 said...

    Remember UL lost to FIU and Marshall last year.

    Remember, FIU and Marshall was early season and with our old O-Coordinator and a bunch of freshmen still adjusting. First 6 games we averaged 16.3 pts per game. The last 7 games we averaged 27.7.

    Remember part 2 - FIU and Marshall were also bowl teams

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    Alanin502

  • Matt May said...

    I get what you're saying but rankings are so pointless this time of year. No one has seen anyone play. Sure, it's pretty obvious to see teams in the Top 10 are going to be really good but once you start getting toward the back end of the Top 25 it's all guess work. No one really knows how good those teams are going to be. Some end up better. Some flop. I've come around to the thinking that there shouldn't be any rankings until October.

    Given that 4 of the last 5 meetings between Kentucky and Louisville have been decided by a TD or less, and it's a rivalry game, I'm just not sure that the programs are really all that far apart or it's an upset either way.

    Agreed. And in this rivalry, being a favorite doesn't mean much. What I'm really hanging my hat on is Charlie Strongs defense was tough last year, returns most from that D AND adds depth and more talent. Also, UofL rushed for 181 yrds against UK last year and UK had an abysmal 35 yards against a bunch of Louisville freshmen.

    It is mostly these reasons I see a Louisville route come Sep 2nd.

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    Alanin502

  • Alanin502 said...

    Agreed. And in this rivalry, being a favorite doesn't mean much. What I'm really hanging my hat on is Charlie Strongs defense was tough last year, returns most from that D AND adds depth and more talent. Also, UofL rushed for 181 yrds against UK last year and UK had an abysmal 35 yards against a bunch of Louisville freshmen.

    It is mostly these reasons I see a Louisville route come Sep 2nd.

    And UK had every single offense lineman injured which gave UL a drastic advantage, and they still only won by 1 score. Games are won and lost with line play, if our line was healthy we win that game by 10.

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    Big Sarge

  • Beating UofL would be an upset. However, I am still trying to grasp how a team can be ranked in the top 25 and not play a single team ranked in the top 25. That is still a team that lost last year to Marshall. And I don't see how they've become appreciably better than their 7-6 season in 2011. With that said, the two touchdown spread is frightening. It tells me either Vegas has lost it's mind (unlikely) or UK is going to be really bad this season.

    KSt

  • Alanin502 said...

    Agreed. And in this rivalry, being a favorite doesn't mean much. What I'm really hanging my hat on is Charlie Strongs defense was tough last year, returns most from that D AND adds depth and more talent. Also, UofL rushed for 181 yrds against UK last year and UK had an abysmal 35 yards against a bunch of Louisville freshmen.

    It is mostly these reasons I see a Louisville route come Sep 2nd.

    Alan, not questioning your knowledge but how do you honestly believe that UofL is returning most of there D and ad's depth. Your only returning starter on the d-line is Brandon Dunn, and after your starters who were back ups last year, you have unproven talent as your 2's. You also are starting 1 possible 2 new Linebackers.

    I am just completely stunned that everyone wants to give all this pre-season hype to the Cards with loses to Marshall and FIU, because of one game against WVU. But no one has mentioned how after the Vandy game, you saw more of the older starters replaced with the younger guys and the result was a 19-10 lose at Georgia and 10-7 win against UT. UT did not add anything Special, but yet they are ranked ahead of us..

    The National Media really needs to pull there heads out of there butts and explain the jumps for some of these teams.

    golfnut51

  • Ending one of the longest losing streaks in D1 football; my upset special is The Gators. UF is not the supremely dominant team of yesteryear and our talent pool is increasing from their own backyard. The Cats will be hungry for this game and CJP is looking for a signature win to hang his hat on. I see this one going down to the wire with UK edging the Gators 24 - 21 in the final minutes. (A guy can hope, right?)

    This post was edited by focust1 on 8/21/2012 at 12:59 PM

    focust1

  • focust1 said...

    Ending one of the longest losing streaks in D1 football; my upset special is The Gators. UF is not the supremely dominant team of yesteryear and our talent pool is increasing from their own backyard. The Cats will be hungry for this game and CJP is looking for a signature win to hang his hat on. I see this one going down to the wire with UK edging the Gators 24 - 21 in the final minutes. (A guy can hope, right?)

    Not gonna happen IN Gainesville. Just don't see it.

    suncat05

  • Alanin502 said...

    Agreed. And in this rivalry, being a favorite doesn't mean much. What I'm really hanging my hat on is Charlie Strongs defense was tough last year, returns most from that D AND adds depth and more talent. Also, UofL rushed for 181 yrds against UK last year and UK had an abysmal 35 yards against a bunch of Louisville freshmen.

    It is mostly these reasons I see a Louisville route come Sep 2nd.

    It cracks me up on how awesome you guys think your defense truly is and was last year. You played three teams that finished in the top 50 for scoring offense in 2011. WVU at #13 Cinn. at #26 USF at #48. In other words you played a bunch of below average offensive football teams. You gave up 255 passing yards to UK last year, Ole Miss is the only other team that allowed more at 283.
    I love the phrase "Charlie Strong's Defense", you guys act like he invented sacking the QB.

    This post was edited by PAXCAT on 8/21/2012 at 2:06 PM

    PAXCAT

  • SCar

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    "Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm." ~ Emerson

    alphacat93

  • UF is the one this year. It could save Jokers job, in the eyes of some "fans". Uga always seem to be a tight game also. I have to say that USCe is at home, and the last time they were here, we beat them. and they took out their fustration last year. rivalary games shouldn't be classified as upsets. not even if one is #1 and the other sucks. If you are rivals, either team can win at any time. UL will not be an upset, more a return to the norm. norm meaning either team can win whenever.

    trueUKgamer

  • bluecatntn said...

    I'd have to go with UL as the most likely, but, I think UF is prime for the pickin' this year.. They have the overall talent advantage, but, they have questions at QB and RB and I'm still not sold on Muschamp to lead that program.. I think Ga has had enough tough games with us in the past few yrs not to overlook us and Spurrier just seems to have our number.. Miss St at home, wouldn't be much of an upset, imo..

    THis^^^^This Fla isnt your dad's, or even your older brother's Florida..questions at several key areas, including Qb, RB, Wr, and cb. Also..its way to early to call uofL an upset. I pick Mizzou..and ARk as other upsets.

    BigBlueDawg12

  • I would go with the following from most to least likely -

    Miss St
    UL
    Tenn
    Vandy
    Missou
    Georgia
    Arkansas

    iacatfan

Kentucky
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