The House of Blue

28
Cats Begin Stretch Run At Rupp Against Florida

A Kentucky basketball year has 3 distinguishable segments: The Non-Conference, The SEC Regular Season, and The Post Season. The non-conference portion follows a familiar pattern year after year, and the SEC regular season schedule follows a pattern when your team is one of the pre-season contenders to win the SEC. The schedule makers seem determined to push the head to head matchups between contenders to the last 3 to 4 weeks of the regular season, the last 3 weeks of February, and the first weekend of March. I believe that the idea is to prevent any of the true contenders from standing alone at the top as the final month of competition begins to maintain suspense and interest in the conference race until the last weekend of the season.

Many seasons, that plan works out that way, but it appears on its face that Kentucky could well spoil the plan this year because the relatively easy first 9 games has allowed the Cats to pile up a 9-0 record that includes 5-0 on the SEC road while all the other pre-season contenders have stumbled through their easy parts. Mississippi State has stumbled 3 times thus far, as has Vanderbilt. Even Florida, who has emerged as the only challenger with a legitimate chance to claim a regular season title in 2012 stumbled out of the blocks at Tennessee. The stage is set with this backdrop for the final 7 games that start with Florida's annual venture into Rupp Arena on Tuesday night.

Make no mistake, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State can all play well enough to beat Kentucky “on a given night.” However, the schedule maker's scheme has had another affect, an insidious one if you are any of the three challengers. This young Kentucky team has had 24 games to unify and solidify its game, and over the course of the last 3 to 6 games, these Cats have emerged as the legitimate #1 team in the nation that most observers claimed they were all season long. When conversation occurs about who can legitimately challenge this Kentucky team, the names that rightfully enter the dialogue include the likes of Syracuse, Ohio State, North Carolina, and Missouri, not Florida, Vanderbilt, or Mississippi State.

Kentucky stands at 23-1, 9-0 in the SEC, including a 5-0 start on the SEC road. This SEC start matches the 2004-05 Cats, as the current team returns to Rupp to take on Florida. Of course, the 2002-03 Cats are best known for running the table in the SEC, a perfect 19-0 including the SEC Tournament Championship, and as of this morning, Ken Pomeroy says Kentucky now has a 30% probability of repeating the 2003 unblemished conference record. However, we should also remain mindful that Kentucky's the last national champion, 1997-98, that started the SEC 8-0 including 4-0 on the road before falling to Florida at Rupp by 4 on February 1, 1998 in route to a 14-2 SEC record, and the National Championship. This team has already placed itself in some fine company. I do not believe this team is finished adding its name and numbers to the UK record book.

FLORIDA enters this game with a 19-4 record, 7-1 in the SEC. FLORIDA has played 23 games at an average pace of about 68 possessions, averaging 80.1 ppg and allowing 65.0 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.175 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.954 ppp. Contributing to those efficiencies are FLORIDA's turnover and rebounding rates. FLORIDA's turnover rate has been 16.2% while they have forced turnovers at a 20.6% rate. On the Boards, FLORIDA's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 34.3% and 69.5% respectively. FLORIDA's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.577.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first 24 opponents produced 68 possessions, and a score of 78.2 to 57.7 ppg for efficiencies of 1.155 ppp and 0.852 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. Contributing to those efficiencies are Kentucky's turnover and rebounding rates. UK's turnover rate is 17.9% and UK has forced turnovers at a 19.3% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 39.1% and 69.1% at the offensive and defensive ends. Kentucky's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.581

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 68 possessions for UK and 68 possessions for FLORIDA with the Cats winning their twenty fourth game in twenty five starts this season by 12 points, 76-64. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.118 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.941 ppp.