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Florida Prediction Thread

  • Here is the Florida Prediction Thread

    http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/PREDICTIONS/31FLA.jpg

    Predictions for Game 31 Florida at Rupp

    http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/PREDICTIONS/31FLA.htm

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    TheProfessor

  • UK 78 FL 72

    bluefugate

  • UK 64
    FLA 84

    kdale

  • UF 95
    UK 70

    BlueGhost

  • Florida----86 UK----66

    sleepydog

  • UF 84
    UK 63

    This post was edited by poliglotcat on 3/8/2013 at 1:39 PM

    poliglotcat

  • Uk80 Uf75
    And an amazing game by mays

    Uk2k

  • Fla 82
    UK 66

    mr289

  • UK 63
    Fla 69

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    TheProfessor

  • TheProfessor said...

    UK 63
    Fla 69

    That's what Vegas has.

    My prediction:

    Fla 74
    UK 68

    montana81 ●

  • The analysis is what it is, but since Big Flat Top went down, this Kentucky team has not been covering the spread, and I doubt that they do today.

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    TheProfessor

  • Have you looked at the defensive ppp numbers since Noel was hurt? What am I saying I know you have. Getting shredded by everyone.

    montana81 ●

  • Without Nerlens
    Actual Off Eff 1.0544 ppp
    With Nerlens
    Actual Off Eff 1.0793 ppp

    Without Nerlens
    Actual Def Eff 1.0893 ppp
    With Nerlens
    Actual Def Eff 0.9215 ppp

    Without Nerlens
    Actual Net Game Efficiency -0.0350 ppp
    With Nerlens
    Actual Net Game Efficiency 0.1579 ppp

    With the strength of schedule, 0.158 ppp NGE is tournament worthy
    The decline has clearly taken this team out of consideration

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    TheProfessor

  • Here we go. Use the link to see the results after the game.

    http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/PREDICTIONS/31FLA_FINAL.jpg

    Predictions for Game 31 Florida at Rupp

    http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/PREDICTIONS/31FLA.htm

    bigbluefans4uk.com
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    TheProfessor

  • UK scored its 31 points on 33 possessions for the half, and FLORIDA scored its 31 points on 33 possessions. Florida won the battle of the boards in the first half 21-19, but Kentucky won the offensive glass, by a 6-5 margin. Florida converted its 5 second chance possessions into 6 second chance points, and Kentucky used its 6 second chances for 7 points. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.758 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp for its 5 second chance possession. UK had 0.727 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 27.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert 27.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this half, making 4 of 8 attempts (50.0%). FLORIDA finished 3-4 [75.0%] from the free throw line. The Cats hit 12 of 31 (38.7%) shots in the first half including 3-11 (27.3%) from long range. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 11-22 [50.0%] and from long range, FLORIDA hit 2-9 [22.2%].

    The Cats committed 4 turnovers, one for every 8.2 possessions. The Cats forced 5 FLORIDA turnovers, one for every 6.6 possessions.

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    TheProfessor

  • Analysis:

    UK scored its 61 points in 64 possessions [0.95 ppp] for the game, and FLORIDA scored its 57 points on 65 possessions [0.88 ppp].

    Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 40-34, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 13-7. FLORIDA converted its 7 second chance possessions into 6 second chance points while Kentucky converted their 13 second chance possessions to score 13 second chance points. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.785 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.750 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 32.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert 200.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    Kentucky shot poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 13-22 [59.1%] and missing the front end of several bonus opportunities. FLORIDA made 8-10 [80.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-56 overall [39.3%] and 4-17 from long range [23.5%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a low 17-41 [41.5%] and from long range, FLORIDA hit 5-14 [35.7%].

    The Cats who committed 10 turnovers, one for every 6.4 possessions. The Cats forced 12 FLORIDA turnovers, one for every 5.4 possessions.

    Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 6 point Kentucky loss, 63-69 at a pace of 66 possessions for UK and 66 possessions for FLORIDA. The final score was 61 (63) to 57 (69) at a pace of 64 possessions for the Cats and 65 possessions for FLORIDA. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 0.953 ppp (0.955 ppp) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.877 ppp (1.045 ppp).

    Next Game On Schedule: Friday, March 15, 2013 when the Cats will open their play in the 2013 SEC Tournament in Nashville. The Opponent will depend upon the seeding and the results of Thursday games in the Tournament.

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    TheProfessor

  • I have updated the Cumulative standings for the 31 games and the 18 SEC games using all three methods of comparison. Use the link below to view all of these tables.

    Predictions for Game 31 Florida at Rupp

    http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/PREDICTIONS/31FLA.htm

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    TheProfessor

  • Best stat on here Professor was that only TWO out of the whole group had a set and picked the REAL winner. UK fans of such little faith.

    Congrats to bluefugate and uk2k for staying in the moment and picking the Cats.

    UKlaw82

  • Wow, some of us need not predict anymore. I haven't been close this year lolhoops

    bish7

  • Im just glad we won. Did not see it coming. We had been getting destroyed on defense since Noel went down. Been horrible in the 2 previous Thursday/Saturday turnarounds and faced a much tougher opponent this time.

    Im wondering, what was Florida's offensive ppp at the point they went up 7? They finished at .88 despite not scoring in their last several possessions.

    montana81 ●

  • Montana, with 7:26 to play, at the under 8 timeout, Florida has scored 57 points on 51 possessions. Over the last 2 segments, 0 pts on 14 possessions

    Off eff first 32 1/2 min 1.118 ppp
    Off eff last 7 1/2 min 0.000 ppp

    Off Eff for game: 0.877 ppp

    I have seen teams completely collapse like this before, and I am sure you have too. I remember the 1975 UK team led with about 7 to play at Florida near the end of the year, and did not score more than 1 or 2 more points and lost the game on their way to the final four. I was there in the old Alligator Alley, and left that game stunned. The ride back to Jacksonville with my Gator boss who got the tickets was about the most miserable 2 hours I can recall.

    I don't remember the time and score when the game losing drought started, but the Cats ended the game down by 8 per the UK media guide, 58-66.

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    TheProfessor

  • We beat Florida at the O-dome in a similar manner back in '04.

    They were up 9 points close to the end and Kentucky finished the game on an 11-0 or 13-0 run. Took the lead on a Hawkins steal and layup on a Florida inbound I believe.

    There's a theme with Donovan's teams so I guess it's not so improbable. You could argue we had them right where we wanted them.

    Donovan's record in close games at Florida is woeful.

    Being a former guard himself I think he instills too much confidence in his guards and they often shoot them out of games when close.

    montana81 ●

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