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Kooky Kats 247
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hoptownukfan
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hoptownukfan said...
3-4 wins is just a silly predictino. As silly as somebody who tries to say 10
here is the logic behind my prediction.
A. Our offense was THE WORST since the curry era last year. Not necesarily because of coaching but because of NO qb play, o-line injuries, running back injuries and awful recruiting at receiver. Our offense will make huge strides this year.
B. Our defense will be better, much better earlier in the season than they were early last season. Our defense was good at the end of last year. It was bad in the begining. That's because of the new scheme. Defense should be pretty good all year.
My predictions based on this?
Sept. 1, 2012 at Louisville W - Louisville lost about the same amount of production as us. i think we upgrade significantly on offense. They don't. We had a shot at the end last year and we were an AWFUL team at the time. Sept. 8, 2012 Kent State W -Obvious Sept. 15, 2012 Western Kentucky W - obvious Sept. 22, 2012 at Florida L - this is the year I think we get it back to a "competitive" game. UF isn't quite as good and we're better. Sept. 29, 2012 South Carolina W - I think we start a little streak with wins at our place. They are losing some VERY special players. They are good, but they aren't nearly as good and I think we're better. We get them at home too. Oct. 6, 2012 Miss. State w - same situation as last year. They lost one of the best players in the conference off of their d-line. WE played them close at our place. Are they better? No. Are we? yes. It will be close but I think we win. Oct. 13, 2012 at Arkansas L - This is one I think we have a shot at but it's at there place and they are very talented on offense. Oct. 20, 2012 Georgia L - This game could go to overtime but I think Murray is simply too good. Oct. 27, 2012 at Missouri L - This is a game that we will have a shot it. But Mizzou is a tough place to play and it will be a tough scheme to prepare for. I think we lose a close one. Maybe overtime. Nov. 3, 2012 Vanderbilt W - We exact revenge for last year. They were improved but they only won 2 conference games. We did the same. The difference is that we are much improved. With all they lost off of their defense I don't see them as being as good. Franklin will take a step back in year 2. Nov. 17, 2012 Samford W - obvious Nov. 24, 2012 at Tennesse W - Yes, two in a row and a win at neyland. Tennessee likely has an interim coach at this point. Da'rick rodgers might be kicked off the team by this point too...
There you have it... that's my prediction. Nice start to the year, mid-season swoon, but three straight wins at the end of the year send us to a bowl game...
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Gridiron_Joe said...
Says who? Newton will still be awful. Smith will probably be better, but how much better? The alternative is a true freshman at QB, which is suicide in the SEC. Our OL was terrible last year, but three starters are gone, paving the way for guys who weren't good enough to beat them out in 2011. Our WR corps is about as bad as any I've ever seen-- while I do think it'll be better than next year, again, how much better?
Defensively, I don't see this team stopping the run or the pass. We lost most of our experience at LB and DB, including Trevathan and Guy, who made about 80% of the plays that were made on defense last year. Also, our punter is gone and the replacement is either a true freshman or somebody who is terrible.
"neither UL nor Vandy are THAT much better than us". OK, I'll bite. UL beat us in our house last year, and has since brought in a great deal more talent than we have, without losing very much. How will this team beat them in the first game of the season? As for Vandy, they did beat us 38-8 last year (outgained us 410-211 yards). Meanwhile, Vandy did go 6-7, but played Georgia, Florida, and Arkansas to the wire. We lost to Florida by 38, Georgia by 9, and would've had our teeth knocked out by Arkansas.
Also, let's not forget that Ole Miss went off of our schedule.
We will beat WKU, Kent State, and Samford, although I might take WKU in an upset if they hadn't been hammered pretty hard by graduation. The WKU team from the end of last year would beat UK. We are not winning at Gainesville, or Fayetteville. I don't care if John L. Sullivan gets hired to coach the Hogs. They'll kill us. I don't see us going to Missou and winning, and either UT will kill us, or the game will be the battle of exiled coaches, and no one will care. At home, I don't see Georgia, USC, or Mississippi State losing to us. I think we might play one of the three close. Vandy is the weakest of the bunch, but look at what I said above, and consider that James Franklin is bringing the best recruiting class in school's history to Nashville.
I'll take 4-8. I think we beat the three cupcakes, and somebody else will slip up. Maybe UL (probably not), maybe UT or Vandy or Miss. St. But I think we've got a better chance at 3-9 than we do at, say, 7-5.
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JHB4UK said...
Overall UK will likely be slightly better, IMO. Better on offense, slighly less on defense due to the losses and inexperience at linebacker and cornerback, special teams might take a step back with questions on the punting game.
From what little preseason analysis I've seen, think the predictions are that UL, Florida, Georgia, Miss State, and Tennessee will be better in 2012 than in 2011.
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Gridiron_Joe said...
Says who? Newton will still be awful. Smith will probably be better, but how much better? The alternative is a true freshman at QB, which is suicide in the SEC. Our OL was terrible last year, but three starters are gone, paving the way for guys who weren't good enough to beat them out in 2011. Our WR corps is about as bad as any I've ever seen-- while I do think it'll be better than next year, again, how much better?
Defensively, I don't see this team stopping the run or the pass. We lost most of our experience at LB and DB, including Trevathan and Guy, who made about 80% of the plays that were made on defense last year. Also, our punter is gone and the replacement is either a true freshman or somebody who is terrible.
"neither UL nor Vandy are THAT much better than us". OK, I'll bite. UL beat us in our house last year, and has since brought in a great deal more talent than we have, without losing very much. How will this team beat them in the first game of the season? As for Vandy, they did beat us 38-8 last year (outgained us 410-211 yards). Meanwhile, Vandy did go 6-7, but played Georgia, Florida, and Arkansas to the wire. We lost to Florida by 38, Georgia by 9, and would've had our teeth knocked out by Arkansas.
Also, let's not forget that Ole Miss went off of our schedule.
We will beat WKU, Kent State, and Samford, although I might take WKU in an upset if they hadn't been hammered pretty hard by graduation. The WKU team from the end of last year would beat UK. We are not winning at Gainesville, or Fayetteville. I don't care if John L. Sullivan gets hired to coach the Hogs. They'll kill us. I don't see us going to Missou and winning, and either UT will kill us, or the game will be the battle of exiled coaches, and no one will care. At home, I don't see Georgia, USC, or Mississippi State losing to us. I think we might play one of the three close. Vandy is the weakest of the bunch, but look at what I said above, and consider that James Franklin is bringing the best recruiting class in school's history to Nashville.
I'll take 4-8. I think we beat the three cupcakes, and somebody else will slip up. Maybe UL (probably not), maybe UT or Vandy or Miss. St. But I think we've got a better chance at 3-9 than we do at, say, 7-5.
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BlueGhost said...
Well, when you look at the "for sure" wins, you start at three. Then you have the "no way" games- Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas, Jawja.
That leaves several possible games- Louisville, Miss State, Missouri, Vandy, Tennessee.
I guess I could see us winning 40-50% of those games, but our track record in the SEC isn't great. I would say that two of those is a stretch at this point, but the telling game will be the U of L game. If we win that on their turf it could be an interesting season. If not, I think you're looking at 3-5 wins, max.
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Gridiron_Joe said...
It's great to say "3-4 wins is just a silly predictino"... but why is it silly?
Yes, the offense was awful last year. Unless I missed something, that doesn't guarantee that it won't be this year. In fact, it probably will be. The receivers will still be bad, the QB is unlikely to be great, we lost three senior OL starters. The defense might allegedly be better, but remember that we lost a lot-- by my count, at least 39 of our 64 tackles for loss last year were by guys who aren't around, and at least 10 of the 20 sacks, and 13 of our 15 INTs.
Yes, UK was 5-7 last year. And Ole Miss, by far the worst non-UK team in the SEC is off the schedule, with Arkansas coming on. That shifts the paradigm to 4-8. I think the three cupcakes stay the same (although bear in mind, last year we beat the three cupcakes by 11, 14, and 24). Can we beat UT again? It's possible, but I wouldn't gamble on it. Could we beat Louisville? We could, but we lost to them in our house last year, and they're out recruiting us pretty severely.
Vanderbilt did more with less last year than any team I can remember. Franklin had a big recruiting year, so I doubt they're getting worse.
South Carolina? You do remember that it was 54-3 last year? I mean, think about this... if we're 2 TD better, and they're 2 TD worse (and both of those would be wildly optimistic), we'd lose 40-17.
Mississippi State is always a swing game, but I've seen nothing to make me think we start winning these kinds of games.
Look, I hope you're right. I'd love an 8-4 season. But I think 4-8 is about a hundred times more likely. UK hasn't won eight games in a regular season since 1977. What makes you think this team is the exception?
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tWhit said...
I don't see any scenario where our offense isn't much better than last year. Even if Max Smith goes out and we have to play Newton or Towles we should still be better. Robinson is starting to come on, hopefully King will step it up, We need a couple more WR's to step up out of Collins, Fields, Sweat, Bookie, Legree, or Cunningham. Surely we can get two of those guys to give us some production. Stretching the field with Kendrick and Shields should really make us hard to defend if we use them properly and we can protect Max. We've got plenty of backs that can play. I think our D will be about the same or slightly better than last year. With an improving offense they shouldn't be on the field nearly as long as they were at times last year. Plus all the guys having a year in Minters system should help.
I see 5 wins at the worst and 7 wins at best. Regardless I'm excited for some football.
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MossCat15 said...
Listen man, you have resigned to view UK football in a completely negative light, and it's not without reason, and it's obvious. That being said, the same team that ended the year at 8-4 (after a bowl), and arguably our "best" team in 2007 was still getting blown out on occasion.
It's undeniable that the offense will be improved from last year, and your right, how much is in question. It's also undeniable that the defense started playing much better toward the end of the year and the D-line will be a strength this year. It's also undeniable that almost every player that is now gone is being replaced by a higher rated or more physically ready prospect. if you look at our team as a whole, it is starting to look more like an SEC team should look (and that is my opinion).
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hoptownukfan
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Beavis13 said..
at Louisville -- ? -- 55%/45% edge to them because it's at their place
Kent -- W
Western Kentucky -- W
at Florida -- L -- Gators have beat us by 30+ four straight years, including the last 2 when they have been very average for them. Put their players in any other uni and I think we'd have a much better chance. We generally psyche ourselves out and lose this game well before it is even played. This streak might reach 50. Really.
South Carolina -- L -- They are coming off a school record number of wins. Spurrier is already talking ish, so you know he thinks he has a team to contend for the East
Miss. State -- L
Arkansas -- L -- top 10 team at their place. No chance whatsoever
Georgia -- L -- They won 10 straight at one point last year. Little to no chance here.
at Missouri -- L
Vanderbilt -- ?
Samford -- W
at Tennessee -- L
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MossCat15 said...
While I think your logic is sound and realistic, I still think anywhere from 4 to 8 wins is possible, with 5 to 7 being much more realistic. I predict 6, with 7 being slighty more likely than 5.
One thing I disagree with is that we will automatically be worse on defense just because we lost Danny and Winston. I think that our young guys up front are going to be much better and we are going to be better on the outside on the D-Line as well. This will make life easier for our young LBers, which are equal prospects to Danny and Winston physically. Only time will tell how they perform, but they should have an easier time, as our D line should command more blockers and set the edge better.
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Gridiron_Joe said...
It's picking at straws, but that 2007 team was NOT blown out. That team's five losses were by 15, 8, 17, 11, and 2. That's a total of 53. We lost to USC by 51 last year. Last year's team lost by 7, 38, 28, 51, 12, 30, and 9. That's a total of 175, making an average margin of loss of 25 points-- more than the 2007 team lost ANY game by.
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tWhit said...
Winston and Danny were great but its not like we're replacing a couple first rounders. So I agree that our D should be better. Here's why I think so, improved Dupree, Cobble, Rumph, Williamson IMO is an upgrade over Sneed, Neloms becomes a leader in the secondary, and most of all we've finally got some guys that could do some damage in pass rushing situations which is the key to Minters scheme. Not to mention they've all got a year in the system.
This post was edited by MossCat15 on 4/25/2012 at 3:50 AM
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Football Predictions after Spring game.