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Lunardi?

  • Tennessee goes from first four out to first four in with a road loss at ga. Iowa state is still last four in, have you seen their résumé lol. And, no surprise, we are out unless we win the last two reg season games. So he has us in a situation where we have to win the sec tourney!? Maybe he's right, but that seems crazy.

    shepp2700

  • shepp2700 said...

    Tennessee goes from first four out to first four in with a road loss at ga. Iowa state is still last four in, have you seen their résumé lol. And, no surprise, we are out unless we win the last two reg season games. So he has us in a situation where we have to win the sec tourney!? Maybe he's right, but that seems crazy.

    Did he say this or are you just assuming he thinks this based on his list?

    If we beat uga we will be back in. Then it boils Down to upsets in conference tournaments and whether or not we can win a game or two in the sec tournament. We can not afford a loss to a bubble team in the sec tournament.

    hoptownukfan

  • We beat ga, then we might be last 4 in on his list. Then we lose to fla, we are out again. Meaning we have to win sec tourney with that logic

    shepp2700

  • I felt going in to the Arkansas game we could lose and still get in. That hasn't changed. You have to beat UGA though.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Nate87

  • shepp2700 said...

    We beat ga, then we might be last 4 in on his list. Then we lose to fla, we are out again. Meaning we have to win sec tourney with that logic

    Looking at it this way, we are a struggling team near the top of a really bad conference. We are considered "out" to "firmly on the bubble" at best. I don't know how anyone can think we are golden by winning one 1 of our last three games and not winning the conference tournament. I just don't see it. Obviously could be wrong, but I can easily see enough scenarios where there are enough conference tourney upsets to end it for us without a pretty good showing from here on out. Just beating a hapless Georgia team won't do it, IMO. It would almost be better if we were not getting a conference tourney bye.

    TacosMcGee

  • Agreed. Apparently joe lunardi went from gay to "super" gay after Saturday. I just would laugh at the sec only getting 2 teams!!!! And assuming they get 3, who the hell can it be besides UK and mizzou

    shepp2700

  • To be fair, his predictions aren't that good compared to others who do this and don't make the same money. There was a test based on previous years and his rank at predictions was outside the top 35.

    I feel like UK is in, the field is extremely weak top to bottom. It's not like having teams that went 25-6 and debating them, all these teams are at 18-21 wins. Look at each team, and UK has a better case than most.

    BGEnforcer ●

  • Look, I'm not trying to get on here and start an argument or sound like doom n gloom. But the fact of the matter is we are a team that is not very good in a conference that is worse. If we lose to Georgia we can forget about the NCAA unless we win the SEC, or somehow beat Florida and make it to Sunday in Nashville. Then we might have a chance. But we currently have only 1 win against a top 50 team. Georgia is 129th in the RPI and they have a losing record. If you are a bubble team at the end of the year such as UK is, you cant afford a loss to a team like this. I'm sorry, but when your post-season life is on the line and you can't muster the heart and determination to beat a losing team then you don't deserve to be in. And if you want to ask me if we pass the "eye test" that everyone talks about, what do you honestly think that answer is? You can't possibly have watched that game yesterday and feel we are a good team deserving of a berth.

    As I said, I'm not trying to be Mr. Pessimist. I've said all year long that we are what we are and there will be years like this as long as Cal is around. Not every class is going to be as talented as the next. And when it isn't, this is what you get.

    All that said, beat UGA Thursday, make a respectable showing against UF, and get to Sunday and they are Dancing.

    nawlinsbaby

  • He is like the weather man. He is making predictions that are no worse or better than anyone else. If we only rely on him we don't need the NCAA committee

    1Dhenry ●

  • Whoever you are you must think UK is the only bad team being considered for the NCAA tournament and that's not the case. Indiana St. over UK come on we get in the same reason UCONN got in last year. Think what you want to but JL doesn't get every team right and having UK out he is wrong. We will be ok the next few games if we can get a fair shot. Florida malls teams and so does Tenn. and Arkansas why do you think they are such a good home team? Because they get games called the way they need them problem for us is UK doesn't get the same help from the refs at home or away. We've had more bad charges called on us than any team in the country and its not even close.

    wildcatfan440

  • wildcatfan440 said...

    Whoever you are you must think UK is the only bad team being considered for the NCAA tournament and that's not the case. Indiana St. over UK come on we get in the same reason UCONN got in last year. Think what you want to but JL doesn't get every team right and having UK out he is wrong. We will be ok the next few games if we can get a fair shot. Florida malls teams and so does Tenn. and Arkansas why do you think they are such a good home team? Because they get games called the way they need them problem for us is UK doesn't get the same help from the refs at home or away. We've had more bad charges called on us than any team in the country and its not even close.

    Actually, we get a pretty fair whistle at home. But you are 100% correct, we get a terrible whistle on the road. Our personel make it even worse. Mays and Harrow don't deal with contact well at all... that's why we look so terrible against teams that try to play football style basketball. Or at least when refs don't call the fouls...

    In terms of the tourney, you are correct in your comment that the theams we are competing against for a spot aren't very good.

    If we win wednesday and win one or two in the sec tourney there is no way possible to keep us out. No way. If we lose wednesday and saturday we will have to win the sec tourney.

    I suspect we will win Wednesday. It will boil down to how the game is officiated on saturday. If it is officiated like the mizzou game (tight) we will win. If not, we won't. It's that simple with this team. Harrow and mays can not handle physical play on the peremiter. And what is sad is that they shouldn't have to. the way the game is being officiated is a joke.

    hoptownukfan

  • Some of you have mentioned the most important point in this whole 'bubble watch' scenario ... a point that many people forget.

    We are not playing out the season in a vacuum. There is not a concrete, obtainable 'level of play' or 'number of wins' we're trying to get to for a bid. We're in a competition with about 30-40 other teams across the country for the 6-10 'bubble' spots. Those teams are also still playing games. About half of them lost last week in addition to UK. Some of them twice.

    There is still a lot of basketball to play out before final decisions are going to be made on tourney invites.

    WildcatKNH :: my NCAA Resource Center > www.knhayes.com/NCAA

    wildcatknh ●

  • wildcatknh said...

    Some of you have mentioned the most important point in this whole 'bubble watch' scenario ... a point that many people forget.

    We are not playing out the season in a vacuum. There is not a concrete, obtainable 'level of play' or 'number of wins' we're trying to get to for a bid. We're in a competition with about 30-40 other teams across the country for the 6-10 'bubble' spots. Those teams are also still playing games. About half of them lost last week in addition to UK. Some of them twice.

    There is still a lot of basketball to play out before final decisions are going to be made on tourney invites.

    I wouldn't say there are 30-40. Probably 15-20. Of those 15-20, almost all 20 lost last week.

    hoptownukfan

  • I'd agree with that. I got the list of 30-40 or so from ESPN's Bracketology and Bubble Watch pages ... but I think some of those they list are a pretty long stretch to make it (or really even be considered).

    WildcatKNH :: my NCAA Resource Center > www.knhayes.com/NCAA

    wildcatknh ●

  • Jerry Palm has us in one of the dayton #12 seed play in games.

    He has us and tennessee both in the play in games. We play umass and Tennessee plays Villanova.

    hoptownukfan

  • shepp2700 said...

    Tennessee goes from first four out to first four in with a road loss at ga. Iowa state is still last four in, have you seen their résumé lol. And, no surprise, we are out unless we win the last two reg season games. So he has us in a situation where we have to win the sec tourney!? Maybe he's right, but that seems crazy.

    Iowa State has beaten Oklahoma and Kansas St. Bothe teams are top 25 RPI. Kentucky's best win is Missouri (RPI 33). The next best win is Tennesee.

    UK has to beat Florida to feel confident. Or of course win the conference tournament.

    Borrow money from a pessimist -- they don't expect it back.

    BIRDSEAT

  • BIRDSEAT said...

    Iowa State has beaten Oklahoma and Kansas St. Bothe teams are top 25 RPI. Kentucky's best win is Missouri (RPI 33). The next best win is Tennesee.

    UK has to beat Florida to feel confident. Or of course win the conference tournament.

    it's not just who you beat but who you lose to. Iowa state has some awful losses.

    The thing UK has going for it is that our worst loss is to "texas a&M". Other than that, nearly every other team has at least an outside shot of making the tourney. Arkansas is a longshot but losing at their place is nothing to be ashamed of.

    The Texas A&M game and baylor games are the one's that could end up haunting us.

    hoptownukfan

  • What Lunardi says has absolutely nothing to do with how the committee chooses who plays in the tourney. I don't know why people get so wrapped up into what he says. What he says is his opinion and everybody has their own.

    ukblueforever

  • People pay attention to Joe and his Bracketology because he knows the criteria that the committee usually uses to determine the fields ... and he's pretty damn good at it.

    In the last five tournaments, he's only missed 7 teams:

    2008 - 65 of 65
    2009 - 63 of 65
    2010 - 64 of 65
    2011 - 65 of 68
    2012 - 67 of 68

    WildcatKNH :: my NCAA Resource Center > www.knhayes.com/NCAA

    wildcatknh ●

  • By next week it will be much easier to predict. It's a big guessing game right now.

    hoptownukfan

  • It's pretty simple, beat Georgia and Florida and we are in.
    Beat Georgia and lose respectfully to Florida plus an sec tourney win, and we are in.
    Keep in mind, if a Cinderella wins the sec tourn we are most likely out. So, don't be tempted to cheer against Florida in the tourney. If they lose, we will then have to win it to get in. Don't see the sec getting more than two teams in unless we get a free pass which happened once before in the BCG era.

    HappyMills ●

  • HappyMills said...

    It's pretty simple, beat Georgia and Florida and we are in. Beat Georgia and lose respectfully to Florida plus an sec tourney win, and we are in. Keep in mind, if a Cinderella wins the sec tourn we are most likely out. So, don't be tempted to cheer against Florida in the tourney. If they lose, we will then have to win it to get in. Don't see the sec getting more than two teams in unless we get a free pass which happened once before in the BCG era.

    Perhaps, but you could say that about any conference that has a cinderella that wins. We need to win the UGA game and win one at the sec tournament and we get in. Frankly, I think our first game may be harder than our second game. Tennessee and arkansas scare me more than alabama.

    The other thing to consider is that the games in nashville will be qseudo home games for us... It's also theorized that conference tourneys and the ncaa tourneys are officated much tighter than regular season games. If we get a tight whistle we could easily win the sec tourney. If they allow games to become a brawl we'll lose our first game. I've never seen a team not be able to deal with contact the way this team can't. It's remarkable.

    hoptownukfan

  • hoptownukfan said...

    it's not just who you beat but who you lose to. Iowa state has some awful losses.

    The thing UK has going for it is that our worst loss is to "texas a&M". Other than that, nearly every other team has at least an outside shot of making the tourney. Arkansas is a longshot but losing at their place is nothing to be ashamed of.

    The Texas A&M game and baylor games are the one's that could end up haunting us.

    What haunts UK is that they have no wins over teams that will without question make the tournament. The best victory is Missouri which is a bubble team itself.

    If UK had a win over Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame or Florida (1 still possible) they would have a leg up on the other similar teams.

    It just depends on how the committee wants to view the stats. Is a win over a good team more important than a loss to a bad team? Or is it the opposite?

    Borrow money from a pessimist -- they don't expect it back.

    BIRDSEAT

  • BIRDSEAT said...

    What haunts UK is that they have no wins over teams that will without question make the tournament. The best victory is Missouri which is a bubble team itself.

    If UK had a win over Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame or Florida (1 still possible) they would have a leg up on the other similar teams.

    It just depends on how the committee wants to view the stats. Is a win over a good team more important than a loss to a bad team? Or is it the opposite?

    Mizzou is not a bubble team... They are "in" on every list.

    I agree that we could have used a win over ND, duke or louisville. Hell, a win over baylor or A&M probably gets them in right now.

    hoptownukfan

  • Missouri may be, but after they lose to Tennessee and Arkansas this week, they are back to a bubble.

    They have a good amount of talent but continue to fall short when pressured.

    Borrow money from a pessimist -- they don't expect it back.

    BIRDSEAT

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