The House of Blue

19
Cats Open SEC Play Against A Rejuvenated South Carolina Team At Rupp

The twelve current members of the SEC have finished their non-conference preparation for conference competition, and on Saturday, SEC action begins with a full slate of games. As conference play begins, based solely on how each of the 12 have played to date, the Kentucky Wildcats clearly begin this race with the greatest probability of finishing in first place again and grabbing that #1 seed for the SEC Tournament. The primary challengers that Kentucky must fend off over the next 16 games are Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State who will fight it out probably into the last week of play to secure those final three first round byes for the tournament.

The Cats open the SEC season at Rupp Arena against South Carolina. South Carolina's non-conference record has a bit of Jeckyl and Hyde appearance in that the Gamecocks lost 5 of their first 7 games and won 6 of their last 7 games in route to their 8-6 record. Some of the disparate results occur because in the first 7 games, USC played 3 at home, one away, and 3 at neutral locations against an array of opponents having an average Pomeroy Rating of 177 and included a game against #6 North Carolina [25 point neutral court loss]. However, in the last 7 games, the average Pomeroy Rating has been only marginally higher, at 190, and did include a home game against #1 Ohio State [8 point home loss]. The other factor that could be contributing to this change is the addition of Bruce Ellington into the playing rotation for the last 7 games.

During the first 7 games, USC must answer for a 6 point loss at #240 Elon College, and a 1 point home loss to #217 Tennessee State. However, in the final 7 games, the Gamecocks did play #1 Ohio State a tough game, and won at #106 Clemson by 3. This shift in apparent performance level, first 7 vs last 7 games makes one at least ponder whether it signals a team on the rise, playing significantly better than their total body of work might indicate today. We will find out the answer to this question on Saturday at Rupp Arena. One indication that this is indeed the case is the fact that after the first 7 games, USC had a Pomeroy Rating of #163, and entering Saturday's game, USC has risen to #118.

USC has played its 14 games at an average pace of about 63 possessions, averaging 64.4 ppg and allowing 60.5 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.024 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.968 ppp. Contributing to those efficiencies are USC's turnover and rebounding rates. USC's turnover rate has been 20.9% while they have forced turnovers at a 23.2% rate. On the Boards, USC's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 38.0% and 64.3% respectively. USC's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.440.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first 13 opponents produced 71 possessions, and a score of 81.0 to 58.7 ppg for efficiencies of 1.135 ppp and 0.838 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. Contributing to those efficiencies are Kentucky's turnover and rebounding rates. UK's turnover rate is 19.1% and UK has forced turnovers at a 20.3% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 40.7% and 69.2% at the offensive and defensive ends. Kentucky's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.516.

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 66 to 67 possessions with the Cats winning their fifteeth game in sixteen starts this season by 25 points, 79-54. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.179 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.818 ppp.