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The Great Debate: How is Mizzou a 'lock', Kentucky not?

  • I'm not knocking Missouri's squad this year, in fact, I really like the Tigers' squad and think they could make a March run, but for the life of me I simply can't figure out how the major NCAA Tournament Bracketologies and Bubble Watches have Mizzou as either a lock or 'should be in', yet have Kentucky on outside looking in or barely in right now.

    Their RPI's and SOS's are nearly identical. Mizzou has early season neutral wins over Illinois (who has a sub-.500 record in Big 10) and VCU, while Kentucky has one over Maryland. Both teams played Louisville, with UK losing on the road by 3 and Mizzou on neutral floor by 23. Both teams have lost to Texas A&M. Mizzou split with Ole Miss, losing by 14 on the road, while Kentucky won there. Mizzou split with Florida (which I imagine is what has them in) while UK lost at Florida, but the Tigers lost by 31 there. The Tigers are 1-7 on the road, UK 4-5.

    So the natural argument is analysts are judging UK by its performance without Nerlens Noel, right? Fair enough. Yes, Tennessee crushed them, but I think you have to throw the final score out in that game given it came four days after a catastrophic injury to the Cats' best player, meaning their loss at a Tennessee team that can't lose these days and just beat Florida in same building shouldn't be overly weighted. And then there's that pesky fact that Kentucky beat Mizzou without Noel.

    I just can't fathom why Mizzou would be four seed lines higher than Kentucky right now in some bracket projections, like they are on ESPN. I just don't see the major difference in resumés. And again, that's not a knock on Mizzou. But I just don't get it.

    This post was edited by Matt May on 2/28/2013 at 7:24 PM

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    Matt May

  • Interesting. I had no idea their resume was so similar. Could we be better off than we think?

    msdcatfan ●

  • I think we're in unless we go 0-3 to end the year. UK brand brings in too much money.

    BlueGhost

  • I think a lot of people (fans, analysts, experts, etc.) have written Kentucky off a little prematurely this year. Couple of reasons I say that. First of all, this team had the misfortune of following up last year's team (national champions who tied the all-time NCAA win mark for a single-season and put 6 guys in the NBA ... in case you forgot) and ... short of starting out 20-0, any team following that was going to look a little disappointing. Secondly, we had some early-season losses not typical of UK teams under Cal ... which added to the impression that this team just wasn't that good.

    To give you an idea of what I mean, I think this team is going to finish the regular season at either 22-9 or 23-8. The 2010-11 Cats finished the regular season at 22-8 ... yet went into the NCAA Tourney as a 4 seed. Now, that team also won the SEC Tourney, but still had a very similar record to this year's team. The difference? The 2010-11 team didn't have some of the early season losses that we had this year and went 12-2 in the non-conference schedule as opposed to this year's 9-4 in the non-conference.

    Guess what I'm trying to say is that between the unreal expectations following last season and the uncharacteristically slow start this year ... I think people may have dropped UK lower than they really should be. Couple that with the fact that there are no dominant teams this year and everyone's losing ... we could be the 8-10 seed this year that no one wants to play.

    WildcatKNH :: my NCAA Resource Center > www.knhayes.com/NCAA

    wildcatknh

  • wildcatknh said...

    I think a lot of people (fans, analysts, experts, etc.) have written Kentucky off a little prematurely this year. Couple of reasons I say that. First of all, this team had the misfortune of following up last year's team (national champions who tied the all-time NCAA win mark for a single-season and put 6 guys in the NBA ... in case you forgot) and ... short of starting out 20-0, any team following that was going to look a little disappointing. Secondly, we had some early-season losses not typical of UK teams under Cal ... which added to the impression that this team just wasn't that good.

    To give you an idea of what I mean, I think this team is going to finish the regular season at either 22-9 or 23-8. The 2010-11 Cats finished the regular season at 22-8 ... yet went into the NCAA Tourney as a 4 seed. Now, that team also won the SEC Tourney, but still had a very similar record to this year's team. The difference? The 2010-11 team didn't have some of the early season losses that we had this year and went 12-2 in the non-conference schedule as opposed to this year's 9-4 in the non-conference.

    Guess what I'm trying to say is that between the unreal expectations following last season and the uncharacteristically slow start this year ... I think people may have dropped UK lower than they really should be. Couple that with the fact that there are no dominant teams this year and everyone's losing ... we could be the 8-10 seed this year that no one wants to play.

    totally agree...i think if harrow can keep playing the way he his we make a strong run...we can beat anyone when he plays well and can also lose to anyone when he plays bad

    esupp24

  • IMO, UK should be more of a lock than Mizzou, better conference record, head to head win, better road record.. I believe both will end up getting in and both will end with a 7-10 type seed, depending how the remainder of the season unfolds..

    bluecatntn

  • If UK wins out somehow and wins the SEC tourney and regular season which is still possible this team could be a 2 or 3 seed. Just a few years ago Georgetown had 10 loses and was a 2 seed. Now this team needs to keep up the momentum win out and let's see how far we can go. The last few weeks have given me hope and let's be honest we have as much talent as anyone so lets just watch and see tomorrow. We win tomorrow and I think we will make a lot of noise in March. We lose and we probably just get in the tourney and exit early. Tomorrow is the biggest test yet for this UK squad.

    wildcatfan440

  • wildcatfan440 said...

    If UK wins out somehow and wins the SEC tourney and regular season which is still possible this team could be a 2 or 3 seed. Just a few years ago Georgetown had 10 loses and was a 2 seed. Now this team needs to keep up the momentum win out and let's see how far we can go. The last few weeks have given me hope and let's be honest we have as much talent as anyone so lets just watch and see tomorrow. We win tomorrow and I think we will make a lot of noise in March. We lose and we probably just get in the tourney and exit early. Tomorrow is the biggest test yet for this UK squad.

    If you're talking about 2010 ... Georgetown was a 3 seed with 10 losses that season. In the last 20 years, the most losses by a 2-seed was 9 (once).

    I don't see any way UK gets a 2 or 3 seed this year even by winning out. That Georgetown team had 7 wins over ranked teams too ... something that UK is not even close to this year. UK this year just doesn't have the resume to be a 2 or 3 seed ... even if we do win the SEC tourney.

    WildcatKNH :: my NCAA Resource Center > www.knhayes.com/NCAA

    wildcatknh

  • The primary differnece is Uk sha 1 win over a top 50 team - Missouri.

    Missouri has 3 wins over top 50 teams, one of which is Florida.

    Hermits have no peer pressure.

    BIRDSEAT

  • Winning out the reg season and 3 wins in the SEC tourney would likely get us in at about a 4-5 seed, best case scenario. Even then, I think we'd have to beat Florida twice to get that high. Just not enough quality wins and teams like Ark, Ga, etc just aren't that great a wins right now.

    bluecatntn

  • Perfect example of how a "mainstream" narrative starts and everyone kind of falls in line. It doesn't matter what reality and objective Analysis says, the prevailing conventional wisdom drives the narrative.

    ukaveman

  • ukaveman said...

    Perfect example of how a "mainstream" narrative starts and everyone kind of falls in line. It doesn't matter what reality and objective Analysis says, the prevailing conventional wisdom drives the narrative.

    That is the the answer. It is the subjective ruling over the objective.

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    TheProfessor

  • because Kentucky being a bubble team becomes a story.

    Missouri being a bubble team is not a story...whether they are in or out really doesn't mean much.

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    Wildmoon

  • Wildmoon said...

    because Kentucky being a bubble team becomes a story.

    Missouri being a bubble team is not a story...whether they are in or out really doesn't mean much.

    I agree Wildmoon! Which story creates interest or sales newspapers! Too many people would love to see us out of the NCAA Tourney! Because most of them don't want to play us. Especially if we keep getting better and more consistent! Love the positive energy right now, hope they can keep building on it! Go CATS!

    KyBlueMan_80

  • wildcatfan440 said...

    If UK wins out somehow and wins the SEC tourney and regular season which is still possible this team could be a 2 or 3 seed. Just a few years ago Georgetown had 10 loses and was a 2 seed. Now this team needs to keep up the momentum win out and let's see how far we can go. The last few weeks have given me hope and let's be honest we have as much talent as anyone so lets just watch and see tomorrow. We win tomorrow and I think we will make a lot of noise in March. We lose and we probably just get in the tourney and exit early. Tomorrow is the biggest test yet for this UK squad.

    I love UK as much as you do friend but there is no way no way UK can get better than a 4 or 5 seed.
    If they do win out big IF, I think a 5 or 6 seed would be the choice.

    However I dont care what the seed is, UK has just as much of a chance to get to the final four as anyone.

    dvillepro1

  • ukaveman said...

    Perfect example of how a "mainstream" narrative starts and everyone kind of falls in line. It doesn't matter what reality and objective Analysis says, the prevailing conventional wisdom drives the narrative.

    This could help UK in the Tourney. Teams will kind of over look them a little I do think.
    Everyone jumps on the bandwagon of the east coast bias.

    dvillepro1

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