The House of Blue

Lack of top shelf talent and officiating. Refs have let the game become way too physical.

Just read an article about this a few days ago. Over the course of the season the average scores per game will be extremely close to what they have been the last 30 years. Since the institution of the three point line there has been a slight decline, but it's beginning to average out. FG% has actually risen ever so slightly. Turnovers and offensive rebounding have decreased over those years. I'll try to find a link to the article, but that could be a tough task considering I don't remember the author.

As for Kansas, that is pitiful. Never thought I would hear a team as good as the Jayhawks would have 2 points with four minutes to go in the half.

The flop fine is great. In CBB it should be a tech per occurrence and every second time a player commits the cowardly move they should be suspended 1-5 games, depending on how often they are guilty. This should also be a reviewable play, period.

The question about scoring year to year is an interesting one. The average points per game in NCAA basketball has not varied much over the last 5 seasons. You can see the data in the first image linked below. This year, there are two factors for the marginal decline in scoring. Average efficiency is down, and average pace is down, both in the same year.

The issue of parity is one that I have trouble grasping, yet it seems to emerge in any season that the team a fan follows is not located near the top of the heap. But, the distribution of teams, based on efficiency, each year is very similar. The two distributions attached are for this season and last season. I could not attach more of these so I have given links to the corresponding distributions for 2011, 2010, 2009 and 2008. A parity argument emerges more as a team's position is located along a section of the distribution with the flatter slope. But when a team is at either end of this distribution, there are few teams that can beat it, or few teams that it can beat, depending on which end, and in those cases, very few are willing to make the parity argument for that year.

As far as game to game variations, you have those in every year as well, and the single game anomalies have little significance in the big picture. The fact that Florida laid an egg the other night does not change in a material way the fact that this Florida team is dominant this season and more than it means that this Arkansas team is suddenly a monster of the midway. Neither are valid conclusions from that anecdotal outcome. Upset occur in sports. Last year, 24.3% of all NCAA D1 games ended with the lesser efficient team beating the more efficient team. This year, the numbers are tracking right along with what the theory would predict, just as it did last year.

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/POMEROY_NGE_RATINGS/Distribution_of_ADJ_NGE_Pomeroy_2011_Final.jpg

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/POMEROY_NGE_RATINGS/Distribution_of_ADJ_NGE_Pomeroy_2010_Final.jpg

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/POMEROY_NGE_RATINGS/Distribution_of_ADJ_NGE_Pomeroy_2009_Final.jpg

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2012-13DataandWritings/POMEROY_NGE_RATINGS/Distribution_of_ADJ_NGE_Pomeroy_2008_Final.jpg

66.4 pts per game is the lowest in 5 years. So there is something to it although minimal. When you look at statistics especially when you have a large sample size the results usually are more minimal than the eye test impression.

Chris nailed it...Also skill level is down...Dont find as many mid range shooters any more..Guys always wanting to dribble in a crowd and dunk..The officials and NCAA have let the game get too rough and this negates the skill of the offensive player..Any time a defender can put his forearm on the hip of a dribbler and ride him to the basket,then he has gained an advantage..The whole game is awful right now and I dont see the NCAA wanting to change it...Too much tv money..

I never thought about the point you made about ESPN and their promotion of great dunks and the lack of the lost art of the 16-18 footer but you hit the nail on the head. Until recently I hadnt heard of how great a game that Jack Givens played in the NC game of 1978. He made a living that day with the midrange shot and burnt Duke for 41 points. The roughness of the game that was mentioned in other posts is a very good insight to the decline in scoring. Look at the Big 10 and Wisconsin for example the scoring is held down by design almost like some teams used the 4 corner style of play before the shot clock was added. I have noticed that some teams shut down their attack on the basket too early IMO when they have a lead. Some teams have taken this approach with 6 or so minutes left in the game and to their chagrin the other team starts to catch up. Your points are also good ones and thanks for replying.

This IMO has become the age of the dunk and 3pt shooter b/c that is whats featured on ESPN and other media outlets. It seems that they focus on these 2 areas of the offensive side of the game and forget about the midrange game altogether along with the rest of the things that make up a good offensive player and team. To me there is nothing prettier than a great pass ending in a basket and an assist for the passer. For example Kyle has had a few beautiful assists this season resulting from great looking passes. Dont get me wrong I love a fantastic dunk or a player stringing together 3 or 4 straight 3 pointers but there is a lot more to the offensive side of the court.

Good point there tWit. I dont know if you remember the teams at LMU with Hank Gathers and etc, now that was fun basketball to watch. Very little defense played in their games but the consistant 100+ scoring in their games was just exciting to see. Now I know that a lot of people enjoy good defense and I am one but there arent very many teams that average over 75-80 points per game. I admire what they do at Wisconsin but watching their slow methodical games is like having a root canal IMO. When the #5 team(Kansas) has 2 points with just 6 minutes left in the 1st half and ends up with 13 pts total for that half its just sad. They need to change the shot clock to 30 seconds which I think is what the womens teams use so there are more possessions for each team per game.

Professor, the games I watch usually involve the higher ranked or more recognized teams in D-1. I dont mind watching 2 top 25 teams battle it out defensively and if a low scoring game is a result of good defense on both teams part then fine but what I have a problem with is 1 or both teams that slow the pace up by design. I know there is a 35 second clock but a team can develop a mini 4 four corners style of play, and again I will use Wisconsin as an example. You take the Lady Cats for example I love to watch them play b/c of the high octane style they play and thats the reason I made it a point to watch every game that LMU played on TV the years Gathers played there. The overall stats you use are fascinating but they include all 300+ D-1 schools(I assume) most of which we never see play on TV. It would be very interesting if you could come up with numbers that included only the top 75-100 schools in D-1 and see what that would look like. Thanks for the statistical info I really do enjoy reading it all.

Thats interesting and surprising in that the top 64 teams per Pomeroy has on average 1 less possession than the average # of possessions for all D-1 teams. Thanks for getting that info, so according to that data lowering the shot clock time to 30 seconds wouldnt do a lot to increase scoring. I wonder if it in fact could do the opposite and lower scoring by teams having to shoot the ball 5 seconds sooner than they do now. I would just like to see the teams I watch on TV score a little more but todays scoring averages just might be the way it is for now and maybe something will change to increase the outcomes of games when it comes to the final score.

The answer is change some rules on fouls liberating guards, cut the shot clock to close to the NBA's, and lengthen the game to the pro level. People want more baskets that's the answer. I'm not overly sure that's what we as fans want though.

Of those three that I suggested, I mostly would like to see a revolution in the rule book. I think that would have the single most impact on what we see out of the college game outside of what Calipari is doing.